中国水利Issue(7)：1-12,12.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1123.2026.07.001
我国"雨带北移"现象及其水安全风险应对
"Northward shift of rain belt"in China and its water security risk responses
摘要
Abstract
Since 2020,much of northern China has experienced significantly above-average precipitation,with many areas showing anomalies exceeding 50 mm.This has led to the prominent phenomenon of the"northward shift of the rain belt,"accompanied by a northward movement of the boundary between arid,semi-arid,and semi-humid regions.This shift results from the synergistic effect of multiple factors.Specifically,the intensification and northward expansion of the western Pacific subtropical high serve as the direct dynamic force.Natural variability of the climate system,such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO),predominantly governs the long-term positional evolution of the rain belt.Climate warming further intensifies the concentration and extremity of precipitation in northern regions.Human activities,including the South-to-North Water Diversion Project and urbanization,have limited influence on this phenomenon.The recent"northward shift of rain belt"is a phase-specific phenomenon.While wetter conditions in northern China may persist for several years,this does not signal a long-term trend of abundant water and cannot alter the decline in surface water resources caused by underlying surface changes in the Haihe River and Yellow River basins.The shift brings both opportunities and challenges:it provides a vital water source for securing water supply and ecological restoration in the north but intensifies flood control pressure and safety risks,thereby raising the demands for disaster prevention,mitigation,and water resources management.It is imperative to strengthen research on the periodic and phase characteristics of the"northward shift of rain belt",enhance monitoring,early warning,and infrastructure resilience,and formulate scientific responses to the water security risks induced by climate change.关键词
"雨带北移"/降水等值线/水资源量/防洪安全/供水安全/生态安全Key words
"northward shift of rain belt"/precipitation isoline/water resources quantity/flood control security/water supply security/ecological security分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
赵勇,王庆明,刘源,何国华,梅超,黄亚,桂云鹏,谭伟丽,路雨萌..我国"雨带北移"现象及其水安全风险应对[J].中国水利,2026,(7):1-12,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(52025093) （52025093）
国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3200204). （2021YFC3200204）
