浙江电力2026，Vol.45Issue(4)：3-11,9.DOI:10.19585/j.zjdl.202604001
计及气象特征的线路覆冰荷载预测
Prediction of ice load on power lines incorporating meteorological characteristics
摘要
Abstract
To address the frequent occurrence of ice-induced disasters on overhead transmission lines and the limita-tions of conventional icing prediction methods,this paper proposes a novel ice load prediction approach that system-atically incorporates meteorological characteristics.First,based on the load patterns of transmission lines,meteoro-logical conditions are classified into three distinct regime sets:load growth,equilibrium,and decay.The grey rela-tional analysis is employed to integrate the weighted contributions of meteorological parameters into the Mahalanobis distance.Second,to resolve the fuzzy membership relationships between meteorological regimes,two physically in-terpretable indices are empirically defined:the ice growth potential(IGP)factor and ice melting potential(IMP)factor,which quantitatively characterize meteorological characteristics.Finally,membership degrees are combined with monitoring data to construct augmented historical samples embedding meteorological characteristics,and a sup-port vector machine(SVM)is applied for ice load prediction.Case studies compare three training paradigms:me-teorological parameters only,fuzzy classification of meteorological processes,and the proposed method.Results demonstrate that the proposed model achieves higher prediction accuracy.关键词
输电线路/气象特征/马氏距离/支持向量机Key words
transmission line/meteorological characteristic/Mahalanobis distance/SVM引用本文复制引用
李江,王尚玉..计及气象特征的线路覆冰荷载预测[J].浙江电力,2026,45(4):3-11,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(51977030) （51977030）
