湖泊科学2026，Vol.38Issue(3)：970-979,10.DOI:10.18307/2026.0315
2011-2020年太湖藻源性碳汇时空特征分析与估算模型构建
Spatial-temporal patterns of algae-derived carbon sink in Lake Taihu from 2011 to 2020 and estimation model development
摘要
Abstract
Natural ecological carbon sinks are a critical pathway for mitigating climate change.Eutrophic lakes,characterized by high primary productivity,possess significant carbon sequestration potential.This study quantified the algae-derived carbon sink in eutrophic Lake Taihu from 2011 to 2020 using the Vertically Generalized Production Model(VGPM).The key influencing factors were identified with a Generalized Additive Model(GAM),and an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA)model was developed for estimation.The results show that the cumulative algae-derived carbon sink reached 3.8×106 t over the decade,with substantial spatiotemporal heterogeneity.The annual sink peaked in 2019(7.2×105 t)and was lowest in 2011(1.7×105 t).Spa-tially,Zhushan Bay had the highest carbon sink(291 g/m2),while Xuhu Bay had the lowest(66 g/m2).Chlorophyll-a concen-tration was identified as the primary driver,explaining 86.0％of the variation.The contributions of water temperature,photosyn-thetically active radiation,and suspended matter concentration were 39.3％,13.2％,and 4.6％,respectively.The ARIMA mod-el,utilizing chlorophyll-a concentration as a single parameter,effectively estimated the algal-derived carbon sink.These findings provide important theoretical and methodological support for assessing carbon sinks in eutrophic lakes.关键词
富营养/湖泊/藻类/碳汇/短期预测/太湖Key words
Eutrophication/lake/algae/carbon sink/short-term prediction/Lake Taihu引用本文复制引用
朱鹏,李子轩,秦伯强,施文卿..2011-2020年太湖藻源性碳汇时空特征分析与估算模型构建[J].湖泊科学,2026,38(3):970-979,10.基金项目
江苏省科技厅项目(BK20220041)和国家自然科学基金项目(42422605,42277060)联合资助. （BK20220041）
