江淮水利科技2026，Vol.21Issue(2)：14-18,37,6.DOI:10.20011/j.cnki.JHWR.202602003
基于综合风险度模型的淮河流域洪水风险区划研究与实践
Study and practice of flood risk zoning in the Huaihe River Basin based on a comprehensive risk index model
洪云飞 1乌景秀 2陈月华 3刘国庆2
作者信息
- 1. 水利部交通运输部国家能源局南京水利科学研究院,江苏 南京 210029||河海大学,江苏 南京 210098
- 2. 水利部交通运输部国家能源局南京水利科学研究院,江苏 南京 210029
- 3. 淮河水利委员会,安徽 蚌埠,233001
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
To address the issue of unclear spatial distribution of flood risks and lack of precise basis for prevention and control measures in the Huaihe River Basin,this paper aims to establish a systematic flood risk zoning method to identify different levels of risk areas within the basin and provide decision support for precise flood control and disaster reduction.Taking the entire Huaihe River Basin as the research object,First,the"three-zone division"was carried out and the zoning units were refined.Next,a comprehensive risk index(R)model was developed with the maximum inundation depth as the core indicator,and the maximum flow velocity and maximum inundation duration as modifying factors.Finally,based on the R values,flood risk in the basin was classified into four levels—low,moderate,high,and very high—and a corresponding zoning scheme for flood disaster prevention and mitigation was formulated.The results of flood risk zoning showed that the Huaihe River Basin was mainly composed of medium and low-risk areas,accounting for a total of 95.19%.The total area of high and extremely high-risk areas accounted for 4.81%,mainly distributed in flood storage and detention areas such as Mengwa and Chengxi Lake,along the main stream of the Huaihe River,and in the low-lying areas of the Lixia River.The results of flood disaster prevention and control zoning showed that the total area of the first and second level key prevention and control areas reaches 51286.76 km2,accounting for 15.50%of the watershed area.The zoning method based on the comprehensive risk level model proposed in this paper can accurately reveal the spatial distribution pattern of flood risk in the Huaihe River Basin.The governance strategy of"graded prevention and control,with emphasis on key areas"and the goal of improving flood control standards proposed based on this provide a scientific theoretical basis and decision support for risk management of water and drought disasters in river basins,national spatial planning,and the construction of flood control engineering systems.关键词
洪水灾害/风险区划/风险要素/综合风险度模型/淮河流域Key words
flood disaster/risk zoning/risk factor/comprehensive risk index model/Huaihe River Basin分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
洪云飞,乌景秀,陈月华,刘国庆..基于综合风险度模型的淮河流域洪水风险区划研究与实践[J].江淮水利科技,2026,21(2):14-18,37,6.
