人民长江2026，Vol.57Issue(4)：67-73,7.DOI:10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2026.04.008
长江流域水储量异常变化的NARNN-SA预测模型研究
Forecasting changes of water storage anomalies in Changjiang River Basin based on NARNN-SA model
摘要
Abstract
Accurate and reliable predictions of Terrestrial Water Storage Anomaly(TWSA)changes over the Changjiang River Basin are crucial for achieving efficient and sustainable water resource management.This study utilizes a method combining sea-sonal adjustment and a nonlinear autoregressive neural network(NARNN-SA),leveraging the autocorrelation of TWSA changes in the Changjiang River Basin for the first prediction.Two tests are designed to evaluate the effectiveness of the NARNN-SA model by comparing it against three models:AutoRegression(AR),Seasonal AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average(SARI-MA),and a nonlinear autoregressive neural network without seasonal adjustment(NARNN).Results demonstrated that the intro-duction of seasonal adjustment significantly improved the predictive performance of the NARNN-SA model,which achieved high consistency with GRACE observations,with correlation coefficient(CC)of 0.894,Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency(NSE)of 0.769,and root mean square error(RMSE)of 1.425 cm during the testing phase.Additionally,NARNN-SA successfully predicted TWSA changes in the source,eastern,and western regions of the Changjiang River Basin and bridged the data gap between GRACE and its successor,GRACE-FO missions.关键词
长江流域/陆地水储量预测/NARNN-SA模型/GRACE卫星/水资源管理Key words
Changjiang River Basin/terrestrial water storage anomaly prediction/NARNN-SA model/GRACE/water re-source management分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
陈洋,谢运广,万海峰,刘强,陈广亮,饶维龙..长江流域水储量异常变化的NARNN-SA预测模型研究[J].人民长江,2026,57(4):67-73,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42304028) （42304028）
