人民长江2026，Vol.57Issue(4)：109-116,8.DOI:10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2026.04.013
径流丰枯变化下南水北调中线受水区供水风险分析
Analysis of water supply risks in water receiving areas of middle route of South-To-North Water Transfer Project under drought-wetness encounters of runoff
摘要
Abstract
This study addressed the water supply risks in the receiving areas of the middle route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project,which arose from varying drought-wetness encounters of runoff between the water supplying and receiving areas.A Copula-based joint probability distribution model was developed using measured data from representative hydrological stations from 1979 to 2023.The model was used to estimate the probabilities of different runoff encounter conditions.The water availability of the receiving areas was determined through the water dispatching of Danjiangkou Reservoir in the water supplying areas and wa-ter allocation in the receiving areas.The resulting water availability was applied to water supply risk assessment.Based on the re-sults of water availability,the water supply risk rate,resilience,and vulnerability were calculated to quantitatively assess the water supply risks in the receiving areas.The results showed that the Gumbel-Hougaard Copula function best fitted the joint distribu-tion of runoff between the supplying and receiving areas.The synchronous encounter probability of runoff in the water supplying and receiving areas was 41.03%.The encounter probabilities for the dry-dry,dry-extreme dry,extreme dry-dry,and extreme dry-extreme dry conditions were 13.53%,2.36%,2.36%,and 0.61%,respectively.On average,the transferred water accoun-ted for 19.18%,27.77%,27.82%,and 24.65%of the water availability in Henan Province,Hebei Province,Tianjin City,and Beijing City,respectively.The water supply risks in the receiving areas exhibited an upward trend with the decrease in runoff in the water supplying and receiving areas.When both areas experienced extremely dry years,the water supply risk was at a medium level,and it would further increase during consecutive dry years.The research results can provide reference for ensuring the nor-mal operation of the middle route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project and the optimal allocation of water resources.关键词
南水北调中线工程/受水区/供水风险/径流/Copula/丰枯遭遇Key words
middle route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project/water receiving area/water supply risk/runoff/Copula/drought and wetness encounter分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
张灿,付湘,王永强,郑小康..径流丰枯变化下南水北调中线受水区供水风险分析[J].人民长江,2026,57(4):109-116,8.基金项目
国家重点研发计划重点专项项目(2022YFC3202300) （2022YFC3202300）
国家自然科学基金项目(52479023) （52479023）
