人民长江2026，Vol.57Issue(4)：117-125,133,10.DOI:10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2026.04.014
艾比湖流域土地利用变化对水资源的响应模拟研究
Simulated responses of water resources to land use change in Ebinur Lake Basin
摘要
Abstract
China's inland arid regions are facing the dual pressures of intensified land use and increasing water scarcity.Taking the Ebinur Lake Basin as the study area,this study coupled a land use change model with a water resource allocation model,inte-grated the PLUS model with water consumption estimation methods,and assessed the dynamic responses of agricultural and ecolog-ical water consumption under different development pathways.The results show that the simulation accuracy is high,with an over-all precision exceeding 92%,and a Kappa coefficient of 0.92.Under the economic-priority development scenario in 2050,culti-vated land area is projected to increase to 36.31 km2,while grassland and forest land are expected to decrease to 224.33 km2 and 17.25 km2,respectively.During the same period,agricultural water consumption will reach 39.5 million m3,whereas ecological water consumption will decline to 5.8 million m3.Compared with the high-carbon-emission pathway,agricultural water con-sumption under the ecological-priority scenario will decrease by 25%;in the sustainable development scenario,agricultural water consumption will be 35.8 million m3 and 36.9 million m3 by 2035 and 2050,respectively.The results indicate that different land use policy pathways significantly affect water resource allocation in arid regions,and that rational adjustment of land use structure is of great significance for maintaining ecosystem stability and promoting sustainable agricultural development.关键词
干旱区/土地利用变化/情景模拟/PLUS模型/耗水估算/艾比湖流域Key words
arid region/land use change/scenario simulation/PLUS model/water consumption estimation/Ebinur Lake Ba-sin分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
包青岭,丁建丽..艾比湖流域土地利用变化对水资源的响应模拟研究[J].人民长江,2026,57(4):117-125,133,10.基金项目
天山创新团队项目(2022TSYCTD0001) （2022TSYCTD0001）
国家自然科学基金项目(42171269) （42171269）
新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学青年基金项目(2025D01C332) （2025D01C332）
全国统计科学研究项目(2025LY002) （2025LY002）
新疆自治区高校基本科研业务费科研项目(XJEDU2025J114) （XJEDU2025J114）
新疆财经大学高层次人才引进项目(40031388) （40031388）
