水利水电技术（中英文）2026，Vol.57Issue(3)：43-59,17.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2026.03.004
2000-2020年密云水库入库河流水质演变趋势
Evolution trends of water quality in inflow rivers of Miyun Reservoir from 2000 to 2020
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]High water quality ensures the survival and reproduction of aquatic organisms and maintains biodiversity.Variations in the water quality of inflow rivers of the Miyun Reservoir are closely related to the ecological protection of its upstream watershed.[Methods]Water quality monitoring data from 2000 to 2020 at Daguan Bridge Station on the Bai River and Xinzhuang Bridge Station on the Chao River located upstream of the Miyun Reservoir(Beijing's drinking water source)were used.The Seasonal Mann-Kendall(S-MK)trend analysis,Spearman correlation analysis,and Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)prediction model were applied to reveal the characteristics and evolution trends of water quality variations in the inflow rivers of the Miyun Reservoir.[Results]The result indicated that total nitrogen at Daguan Bridge increased year by year from a minimum of 1.85 mg/L to 2.09 mg/L,and at Xinzhuang Bridge from 4.89 mg/L to 5.93 mg/L.From 2000 to 2020,total nitrogen failed to meet Class Ⅱ standards and was the main influencing factor of the water quality variations in the inflow rivers of the Miyun Reservoir.Specifically,population growth and GDP contributed over 90％to water quality variations,while precipitation,temperature,and evapotranspiration contributed approximately 9％,indicating human factors as the primary drivers of water quality.LSTM predictions showed that in the next ten years,the water quality of inflow rivers of the Miyun Reservoir would generally remain within Class Ⅱ-Ⅲ standards.Total nitrogen and nitrate nitrogen could reach a maximum value of 8.36 mg/L in certain months,showing significant fluctuations.Seasonal variations in water quality required particular attention.[Conclusion]By analyzing water quality variations,exploring driving factors,and predicting future water quality trends,the findings provide references for water resource management in the watershed of Miyun Reservoir and for water quality protection research in rivers in northern China.关键词
水质/趋势分析/相关性分析/驱动因素/LSTM预测模型/密云水库Key words
water quality/trend analysis/correlation analysis/driving factors/LSTM prediction model/Miyun Reservoir分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
徐萌,薛万来,万路通,吴卿,齐迹,李文忠,安翼..2000-2020年密云水库入库河流水质演变趋势[J].水利水电技术（中英文）,2026,57(3):43-59,17.基金项目
国家自然科学基金青年项目"顾及空间异质性的河流廊道生态修复成效遥感多尺度评估研究"(3230130282) （3230130282）
国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(2018ZX07101005-03) （2018ZX07101005-03）
北京市科技计划课题"密云水库水生态安全优化调控技术体系研究与规范"(Z221100005222013) （Z221100005222013）
