水利水电技术（中英文）2026，Vol.57Issue(3)：122-137,16.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2026.03.009
用水总量预测的研究进展及展望
Research progress and prospects of total water consumption prediction
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]Total water consumption control serves as a key indicator of the most stringent water resource management system.Faced with continuously fluctuating water demand,traditional single prediction models fail to effectively capture such dynamic adjustments.[Methods]To enhance the accuracy of total water consumption prediction,based on current research progress in this field,the development trends of existing prediction method for total water consumption and their applicability are systematically reviewed from the dimensions of statistical patterns,water consumption mechanisms,water consumption quotas,and model construction.[Results]The results show that China's early prediction result of medium-and long-term total water consumption are generally higher than the actual data.Water consumption predictions based on statistical patterns rely heavily on historical data,demonstrating better reference value for short-term predictions.The prediction method based on water consumption mechanism is suitable for experimental sites or at relatively small-scale areas,but cannot be directly applied to macro-planning.The prediction method based on water consumption quota is applicable to medium-and long-term,regional predictions for different water users.The model construction-based prediction method,while requiring high-quality data and strong dependence,demonstrates high prediction accuracy and strong adaptability.[Conclusion]Early predictions of long-term total water consumption suffer from limited accuracy.Furthermore,the water consumption trend in China demonstrates nonlinear evolution characteristics,and the existing prediction method have limitations in applicability and accuracy.Therefore,future research should focus on comprehensive integration of multiple method or multilayer model construction to enhance scientific validity and practical applicability.关键词
用水总量/用水预测/适用性/研究进展/水资源/非线性/人工智能/机器学习Key words
total water consumption/water consumption prediction/applicability/research progress/water resources/nonlinearity/artificial intelligence/machine learning分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
杨军飞,孙伯明,冒云,赵敏,胡晓雨,耿雷华,黄昌硕..用水总量预测的研究进展及展望[J].水利水电技术（中英文）,2026,57(3):122-137,16.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目"南水北调西线工程调水对长江黄河生态环境影响及应对策略"(2022YFC3202401) （2022YFC3202401）
江苏省水利科技项目"江苏省区域用水总量预测模型技术研究"(2024024) （2024024）
中央级公益性科研院所基金项目(Y525005) （Y525005）
