上海国土资源2026，Vol.47Issue(1)：121-130,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.2095-1329.2026.01.014
基于FLUS-InVEST模型的干旱区土地利用多情景模拟及碳储量预测
Multi-scenario simulation and carbon storage prediction of land use based on FLUS-InVEST model in arid areas
摘要
Abstract
Ecosystem structure and function have been altered by land use changes driven by natural and anthropogenic factors,with such changes significantly impairing ecosystem carbon sequestration capacity.Suzhou District,Jiuquan City,located in the Hexi Corridor,was selected as the study area.Based on land use datasets in 2010,2015,and 2020,land use status quo and dynamic trends were analyzed,and the FLUS model coupled with the InVEST model was utilized to simulate and predict land use patterns and carbon storage features under four scenarios in 2030.Key research findings were summarized as follows:(1)From 2010 to 2020,unused land and farmland were the dominated land use types in Suzhou District.The area of forestland,grassland,water bodies and construction land showed an upward trend,while farmland area witnessed a continuous decline.(2)The FLUS model yielded a land use simulation accuracy of 0.86 for Suzhou District,showing high consistency with actual land use spatial patterns.Among the four scenarios,the comprehensive protection scenario was optimal for the future sustainable development of study area.(3)Ecosystem carbon storage in Suzhou District rose from 2010 to 2020,with a total increase of 3.0 × 104 t over the decade.From 2020 to 2030,carbon storage was projected to peak under the comprehensive protection scenario,followed by the ecological protection and natural development scenarios,and the farmland protection scenario was the lowest.These findings provided references for regional land use multi-scenario simulation and carbon storage prediction,and offered scientific guidance for territorial spatial planning optimization,ecological protection and sustainable development.关键词
土地利用变化/碳储量预测/FLUS-InVEST模型/干旱区/酒泉市肃州区Key words
land use change/carbon storage prediction/FLUS-InVEST model/arid areas/Suzhou District of Jiuquan City分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
吉雄娟,王健顺..基于FLUS-InVEST模型的干旱区土地利用多情景模拟及碳储量预测[J].上海国土资源,2026,47(1):121-130,10.基金项目
中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所科研项目(KYS2022BSKY01) （KYS2022BSKY01）
