上海国土资源2026，Vol.47Issue(1)：148-157,187,11.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.2095-1329.2026.01.017
中国长江经济带粮食生产潜力空间测算及分区优化研究
Evaluating and zoning the grain production potential of the Yangtze River Economic Belt in China
摘要
Abstract
As an important grain-producing region in southern China,improving the grain production potential of the Yangtze River Economic Belt(YREB)is of great significance for ensuring China's food security.By constructing the PLUS model and GM model,this paper estimates three types of grain production potential in the YREB at the county level for 2035,namely cultivated land area potential,grain sown area potential,and grain yield per unit area potential.It also delineates grain production potential zones and puts forward differentiated pathways for improving grain production potential.The results show that:(1)The average county-level cultivated land area potential in the YREB is 1236.58 hm2,and the total cultivated land area potential accounts for 3.03％of the existing cultivated land area.(2)The average county-level grain sown area potential in the YREB is 2.51×104 hm2,and the total grain sown area potential accounts for 64.14％ of the current grain sown area.(3)The average county-level grain yield potential in the YREB is 0.74 t/hm2,accounting for 13.20％ of the current grain yield level.(4)Based on different combinations of the three types of grain production potential,the county-level grain production potential of the YREB can be divided into 4 first-level zones and 8 second-level zones.These findings indicate that the main source of future improvement in grain production potential in the YREB is to prioritize increasing the grain sown area on the basis of stabilizing the scale of cultivated land,followed by raising grain yield per unit area.This paper provides a new perspective for enhancing grain production potential with strong practical operability,and can serve as a useful reference for the YREB and similar regions in formulating policies to improve grain production potential.关键词
耕地/粮食生产潜力/空间分区/中国/长江经济带Key words
cultivated land/grain production potential/spatial zoning/China/Yangtze River Economic Belt分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
袁承程,周振举,刘海玲,范育蕾,尹宇清,刘黎明..中国长江经济带粮食生产潜力空间测算及分区优化研究[J].上海国土资源,2026,47(1):148-157,187,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目(42571312) （42571312）
