摘要
Abstract
During the 15th Five-Year Plan period,China's oil consumption will enter a peak plateau phase,with refined oil product demand showing an irreversible downward trend after peaking,posing severe challenges to the fuel oriented refining and chemical industry.This paper systematically analyzes the characteristics of oil consumption trends during the 15th Five-Year Plan period,draws on the experience of capacity consolidation and business restructuring in Japan's refining industry,and proposes a response framework together with policy recommendation.The study shows that in 2025,China's oil consumption reached 779 million tons,and will fluctuate at a high level in the range of 780 million to 800 million tons during the 15th Five-Year Plan period.Gasoline and diesel demand have entered a downward channel,with average annual declines of 5.2%and 4.2%,respectively,during the 15th Five-Year Plan period.This paper draws on the transformation,experience of Japan's refining industry and proposes a tripartite strategic framework of"stabilizing scale,promoting transformation,and expanding exports."Keeping the refining processing scale basically stable is intended to gain strategic buffer for structural adjustment.Expanding refined oil product exports is inherently consistent with ensuring oil security,forming a flexible mechanism of"releasing capacity in normal times and ensuring supply in emergencies".The paper also suggests supporting policies in capacity consolidation,innovation-driven development,export management,and fiscal and tax support,helping the industry tide over economic cycles and achieve high-quality and sustainable development.关键词
十五五/石油石化/能源转型/成品油出口/石油安全/石油消费达峰/产能整合/油转化/弹性机制Key words
15th Five-Year Plan/petroleum and petrochemicals/energy transition/refined oil exports/oil security/peak oil consumption/capacity consolidation/oil-to-chemicals/flexible mechanism分类
管理科学
