水科学进展2026，Vol.37Issue(3)：409-420,12.DOI:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2026.03.002
水旱灾害防御范式重构与关键问题
Evolution of flood and drought defense paradigm and its key issues
摘要
Abstract
Extreme precipitation,severe flooding,widespread droughts,and compound disasters occur more frequently as the"non-stationary"features of the global water cycle become more obvious.When confronted with"low-probability,high-impact"natural disasters,the traditional approach of"defense based on historical patterns,"which assumes climate stationarity,suffers from a lack of adaptation.By investigating the conceptual chain of"flood-drought-disaster-impact-prevention-resilience,"this study points out a systemic bias in the present approach.This bias emphasizes structural prevention over adaptive resilience and disaster control over damage mitigation.We establish a new paradigm of"intelligent adaptation to uncertain extreme"in response,along with its practical applications.According to the study,a modernized flood and drought defense system should:apply the National Water Network as a strategic carrier to improve spatiotemporal water reallocation capacity;use smart water management as the main driver for establishing a closed-loop system that combines"perception-forecasting-simulation-decision making";with ecological measures as a resilience foundation to promote"grey-green synergy"in systemic governance.Additionally,the perspectives of energy dynamics and social psychology expand the theoretical bounds of disaster comprehension and defense evaluation.The aim of this study is to offer a theoretical foundation and workable solutions to establish a new-generation flood and drought mitigation system that will withstand unpredictable conditions in the future.关键词
水旱灾害防御/防御重现/智驭未知/国家水网/智慧水利/生态韧性Key words
flood and drought defense/defense based on historical patterns/intelligent adaptation to unknown extremes/National Water Network/smart water management/ecological resilience分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
严登华,张建云,王浩,袁喆,尹军,秦天玲,翁白莎..水旱灾害防御范式重构与关键问题[J].水科学进展,2026,37(3):409-420,12.基金项目
京津冀环境综合治理国家科技重大专项项目(2025ZD1208300) （2025ZD1208300）
国家自然科学基金项目(52130907) *The study is financially supported by the Jing-Jin-Ji Regional Integrated Environmental Improvement-National Science and Technology Major Project of China(No.2025ZD1208300)and the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52130907). （52130907）
