太平洋学报2026，Vol.34Issue(4)：78-98,21.DOI:10.14015/j.cnki.1004-8049.2026.04.007
陆权困境能否循环?
Can the Land Power Dilemma Recur?
摘要
Abstract
Since modern times,the rivalry between land powers and sea powers has often resulted in the recurring dilemma of land powers suffering repeated defeats.Why does this pattern emerge?By analyzing classic cases such as the Anglo-French,Anglo-Russian,and Anglo-German rivalries since the 19th century,this paper proposes an explanatory framework of"security conditions,enduring rivalry,strategic consensus."Research reveals that land powers and sea powers,driven by inherent differences in their security conditions,become entangled in enduring rivalry.This high-pressure environment catalyzes crucial land powers—as third parties—to form explicit counterbalancing consensus and forge alliances with sea powers,ultimately trapping the land power in dual containment from both land and sea,leading to its demise.In the era of technopolitics,this theoretical framework undergoes profound adaptation:technological transformation,as a reconfiguring variable,deeply couples with traditional geographic factors.This drives competition to shift from geographic-space dominance to techno-geographic dominance,and from high-intensity intermittent rivalry to normalized extreme attrition.It also renders external response patterns highly complex and uncertain.By analyzing the evolution of security conditions and strategic consensus in great power competition in the technopolitical era,this paper argues that the classic causal chain that led to the repeated defeats of land powers in modern times has been broken.Therefore,although great power competition in the technopolitical era persists with modern characteristics,the possibility of transcending the land power dilemma has emerged,giving rise to long-term strategic games centered on technology and systems.关键词
陆海大国竞斗/安全条件/战略共识/消耗性对抗/技术政治时代Key words
land-sea power rivalry/security conditions/strategic consensus/enduring rivalry/the era of technopolitics分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
李清扬,杜哲元..陆权困境能否循环?[J].太平洋学报,2026,34(4):78-98,21.基金项目
本文系教育部哲学社会科学研究重大专项"国际政治与中国政治学自主知识体系建构研究"(2025JZDZ021)的阶段性研究成果,系中国政法大学青年教师学术创新团队"大变局下中国对外安全战略研究"(25CXTD03)资助成果. （2025JZDZ021）
