西北师范大学学报（自然科学版）2026，Vol.62Issue(3)：73-83,11.DOI:10.16783/j.cnki.nwnuz.2026.03.009
鄱阳湖生态经济区碳储量时空格局与多情景演变
The spatio-temporal pattern and multi-scenario evolution of carbon storage in the Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone
摘要
Abstract
Land use change data from 2000,2010,and 2020 for the Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone were selected.The InVEST model and ArcGIS software were employed to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of carbon storage,combined with the PLUS model to simulate carbon storage changes in 2030 under three scenarios:natural development,urban development,and ecological protection.The results indicated that the total regional carbon storage showed a continuous decline from 2000 to 2020.Forestland and cropland were the primary carbon storage types,accounting for 51.36%and 41.90%of the total in 2020,respectively.The expansion of construction land was the main driver of carbon storage decline,with the spatial pattern of carbon storage exhibiting a"low in the center,high in the periphery"distribution.In 2030,carbon storage under the three scenarios is projected to be 492.96×106 t,491.86×106 t,and 497.28×106 t,respectively.Carbon storage continued to decline under the natural development and urban development scenarios,while the ecological protection scenario mitigates carbon storage loss.The spatiotemporal evolution of carbon storage in the Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone was highly correlated with land use patterns.Scenario simulations demonstrate that rationally controlling construction land expansion and strengthening the protection of forestland and wetlands were crucial measures for maintaining regional carbon sequestration capacity.关键词
土地利用/碳储量/多情景模拟/PLUS模型/鄱阳湖生态经济区Key words
land use/carbon stock/multi-scenario simulation/PLUS model/Poyang Lake Ecological and Economic Zone分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
瞿德业,吴岳,薛润铎,黄翰林,陆文静,牛昊源,刘婷婷,刘军,谈卓丽,包翔宁..鄱阳湖生态经济区碳储量时空格局与多情景演变[J].西北师范大学学报（自然科学版）,2026,62(3):73-83,11.基金项目
兰州市科技计划项目(2025-2-20) （2025-2-20）
