西北师范大学学报（自然科学版）2026，Vol.62Issue(3)：99-109,11.DOI:10.16783/j.cnki.nwnuz.2026.03.011
人口老龄化对经济增长的效应
Effect of population aging on economic growth:a case study of the Yangtze River Delta region
摘要
Abstract
The rapid aging of the population structure in the Yangtze River Delta region and the imbalance between the economic society have become increasingly severe.This paper,from the perspective of population structure,uses data from the fifth,sixth,and seventh national censuses and urban statistical yearbooks,and employs the population center model,spatial autocorrelation analysis,and spatial econometric models to empirically examine the temporal and spatial characteristics of population aging in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2000 to 2020,as well as its impact and mechanism on economic growth.The results show that the aging in the Yangtze River Delta region exhibits significant temporal and spatial characteristics.Spatially,the aging level in developed cities is lower than that in less developed regions,and the aging center continues to shift towards the northwest,with a significant increase in the clustering of the elderly population after 2010.In terms of economic effects,aging indirectly affects economic growth through its impact on human capital,gender structure,and unemployment rate.From 2000 to 2010,aging has a positive promoting effect on economic development.From 2011 to 2020,as aging exceeds the threshold,it turns into a restraining effect.Regional path differences manifests that developed regions adapts to the aging population through the silver economy transformation,while less developed regions have a more significant negative impact of aging on the economy.Due to insufficient industrial support,aging has a more significant negative impact on the economy in less developed regions.关键词
老龄化/长三角地区/时空特征/经济增长Key words
aging/Yangtze River Delta region/spatio-temporal characteristics/economic growth分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
赵海莉,丁向阳..人口老龄化对经济增长的效应[J].西北师范大学学报（自然科学版）,2026,62(3):99-109,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(42361036) （42361036）
