摘要
Abstract
Objective To analyze surveillance data on birth defects among perinatal infants in Guiyang City from 2016 to 2024,predict future trends,and provide a scientific basis for prevention and control strategies.Methods Perinatal birth defect data for Guiyang City during 2016-2024 were collected and statistically analyzed.An ARIMA model was established to predict monthly birth defect incidence for 2025-2026.Results The average annual incidence rate of birth defects in Guiyang City was 45.1‰,with an overall upward trend(P<0.001).The top five defects overall were congenital heart disease,external ear malformation,polydactyly,clubfoot,and hypospadias,with slight year-to-year variation in ranking;congenital heart disease consistently ranked first.The birth defect detection rate was higher in male infants(48.3‰)than in female infants(41.3‰)(P<0.001),and higher in rural areas(53.2‰)than in urban areas(44.3‰)(P<0.001).Among maternal age groups,the incidence was highest in infants of mothers aged≥35 years(50.5‰).Most diagnoses were confirmed within 7 days postpartum,accounting for 82.71%of cases(10 489 cases).The ARIMA model predicted monthly mean incidence rates of 84.9‰ in 2025 and 91.2‰ in 2026,indicating a continued upward trend.Conclusions The incidence of birth defects in Guiyang shows an upward trajectory,with congenital heart disease as the leading defect.Targeted management for key populations such as rural residents and advanced-age pregnant women is recommended;the prenatal screening process should be standardized,and high-risk interventions strengthened via prenatal diagnosis centers to improve the quality of the newborn population.关键词
出生缺陷/先天性心脏病/ARIMA模型/预测/围产儿Key words
Birth defect/Congenital heart disease/ARIMA model/Prediction/Perinatal infant
