中国水利Issue(8)：20-29,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1123.2026.08.003
郑州"7·20"特大暴雨洪水复盘模拟及风险分析
Flood retrospective simulation and risk analysis of"7·20"extreme rainstorm flood in Zhengzhou City
摘要
Abstract
After the"7·20"extreme rainstorm flood in Zhengzhou City in 2021,a series of engineering and nonengineering measures were implemented in Zhengzhou City,and the flood control capacity was systematically improved.In order to test the actual effect of the current working conditions to deal with extreme rainstorm floods,this study was based on the hourly rainfall,topography,and current working conditions data of rainstorm,relying on the"five pre"(forecasting,pre-assessment,early-warning,rehearsal and contingency planning)system of flood control in Zhengzhou City,using the coupling technology of three-source Xin'anjiang model,water engineering dispatching model,and one-dimensional river hydrodynamic model to carry out flood retrospective simulation and risk analysis.The whole process was integrated into the pre-judgment function to realize the advanced research and judgment of flood risk and the optimization of engineering joint dispatching.The applicability of the model method and the reliability of the simulation results were verified by comparing with the actual situation of the"7·20"disaster.The results show that the operation of 15 reservoirs under the current operating conditions can give full play to the role of flood storage and regulation.The highest water level adjusted according to the"7·20"actual water level does not exceed the design water level,and the highest water level adjusted according to the current flood limit water level does not exceed the check water level.The river channel in the main urban area has been significantly improved through comprehensive management and drainage capacity.The Jialu River(from Science Avenue to Beijing-Hong Kong-Macao Expressway section)and the whole section of the Jinshui River have reached the flood control standard of 100-year return period,and only the local sections of the Chaohe River and Qilihe River have overflow danger.The risk of flood overflowing into the channel of the two cross-buildings of the middle line of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project in Jiayu River and Jialu River is greatly reduced,which can effectively guarantee the water conveyance safety of the middle line of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project.The research results can provide technical support for extreme precipitation defense,unconventional rainstorm flood forecasting and early warning,and flood control system optimization and improvement in Zhengzhou City.关键词
郑州"7·20"特大暴雨/洪涝灾害/洪水模拟/水库调度/新安江模型/防洪"五预"/洪水复盘Key words
"7·20"extreme rainstorm in Zhengzhou City/flood disaster/flood simulation/reservoir regulation/Xin'anjiang model/"five pre"for flood control/flood retrospective analysis分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
李匡,窦海英,刘桓语,耿传宇,董永立,韩斌..郑州"7·20"特大暴雨洪水复盘模拟及风险分析[J].中国水利,2026,(8):20-29,10.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3209202). （2023YFC3209202）
