职业技术教育2026，Vol.47Issue(12)：56-65,10.
区域内人口变动对高等职业教育的发展影响及对策研究
Influence of Regional Population Changing on the Development of Higher Vocational Education and Its Countermeasures
摘要
Abstract
Population is the basic variable of education development.Population change directly affects the scale,quality and structure of education.In 2022,the natural population growth rate of Shaanxi Province was-0.28 ‰,and the total population showed negative growth.How to give full play to the talent dividend and promote the sustainable and healthy development of social economy has become an urgent problem to be solved.Shaanxi Province is an important education base in the western region,and the development of its higher vocational education directly affects the construction of the western talent team.Through PADIS-INT software,the population change of Shaanxi Province from 2025 to 2035 is predicted and analyzed.The prediction results show that the total population of higher education age in Shaanxi Province has increased slightly in recent years,and it will reach a small peak in 2033,which is expected to reach 2.4668 million people.Then it declined gradually to 2.3793 million in 2035.In view of the gap in the supply of resources per student and the supply of teachers in higher vocational education in Shaanxi Province during the small peak period,it is necessary to increase the supply of high quality;during the decline period,the total supply of higher vocational education resources is saturated,and the supply structure needs to be adjusted in time,from resource supply to special planning management.Based on the demographic characteristics in different periods of change,it is necessary to improve policy support and allocate dedicated financial investments,continuously deepen school-enterprise cooperation to jointly build a team of"double-qualified"teachers,leverage regional characteristics to resolve the crisis of student recruitment,and cater to social needs to facilitate lifelong education.This paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for the supply planning of higher vocational education within the region and provides references for educational planning and forecasting at other stages.关键词
高等职业教育/人口变动/高质量发展/应对机制/陕西省Key words
higher vocational education/population changing/high-quality development/coping mechanisms/Shaanxi province分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
马鹏媛,陈紫涵..区域内人口变动对高等职业教育的发展影响及对策研究[J].职业技术教育,2026,47(12):56-65,10.基金项目
国家社会科学基金"十三五"规划2020年度教育学一般课题"首批'本科层次高等职业教育试点大学'运行监测研究"(BJA200107),主持人:冯东 （BJA200107）
