安顺学院学报2026，Vol.28Issue(2)：42-51,10.
农村养老产业PPP模式的动态演化博弈与协调机制研究
Research on the Dynamic Evolutionary Game and Coordination Mechanism of the Public-Private Partnership Model in the Rural Elderly Care Industry
摘要
Abstract
By introducing a strength coefficient for the traditional rural elderly care concept,this study constructs a tripartite dynamic evolutionary game model and employs a dual-scenario simulation method to systematically investigate the patterns of strategic interaction among multiple agents under different lev-els of this cultural concept.The findings reveal that efficient government guidance strengthens the positive investment preferences of urban capital flowing into rural areas,thereby encouraging farmer participation.However,active farmer participation,in turn,weakens the government's willingness to maintain efficient guidance.Under a low-intensity traditional care concept,farmers' willingness to participate is primarily driven by income thresholds.Conversely,under a high-intensity concept,policy intervention is required to overcome cultural lock-in and strictly control coordination costs;otherwise,it is prone to forming a difficult-to-reverse steady state of negative strategies.Rural-bound capital is sensitive to income incen-tives when the traditional concept intensity is low,but becomes more sensitive to service suitability and the absence of penalties when the intensity is high.In the latter case,regulatory failure can easily trigger short-term profit-seeking behavior.For the government,it is necessary to prevent efficiency losses from over-intervention under a low-intensity traditional concept,whereas under a high-intensity concept,cul-tural transformation must be combined with cost suppression,as a single policy tool is insufficient to main-tain a multi-party collaborative steady state.Consequently,based on the simulation results,this study constructs a collaborative mechanism encompassing farmer participation incentives,capital regulation con-straints,and dynamic government governance,providing theoretical support for the localized innovation of the rural elderly care industry.关键词
农村养老产业/乡土养老观念/PPP模式/三方动态演化博弈/协同机制Key words
rural eldercare industry/traditional rural eldercare concepts/PPP model/tripartite dynam-ic evolutionary game/coordination mechanism分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
陈臣,张湛,蔡沅轩..农村养老产业PPP模式的动态演化博弈与协调机制研究[J].安顺学院学报,2026,28(2):42-51,10.基金项目
宜宾市2025年社科基金重点项目"宜宾生产性服务业发展研究"(YB25Z07) （YB25Z07）
四川轻化工大学成渝地区双城经济圈川南发展研究院2024年度重点项目"川南经济区县域城乡产业融合发展动力机制与实现路径研究:基于经济回嵌视角"(CYQCNY20241). （CYQCNY20241）
