广东农业科学2026，Vol.53Issue(3)：119-134,16.DOI:10.16768/j.issn.1004-874X.2026.03.011
黄淮海平原耕地面积时空演化及对粮食产量动态响应
Spatiotemporal Evolution of Cultivated Land Area and Its Dynamic Response to Grain Yield in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]The study investigates the spatiotemporal evolution of cultivated land area and its dynamic response to grain yield in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain,aiming to provide reference for coordinating the integrated development of"storing grain in farmland"and"storing grain in agricultural technology"and ensuring national food security.[Method]Based on the prefecture-level city scale data of cultivated land area and grain yield in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain from 2000 to 2023,this study employed mathematical statistics and GIS spatial analysis to explore the spatiotemporal evolution pattern of cultivated land area and the sensitivity of grain yield to cultivated land area changes in the Huang-Huai-Hai.[Result]The Huang-Huai-Hai Plain featured a concurrent trend of decreasing cultivated land area and continuous growth in total grain yield.The total cultivated land area decreased from 6.97 × 108 hm2 to 6.64 × 108 hm2,with a reduction of 4.69％.The average value of cultivated land dynamic degree was-0.25％,and its reduction rate showed a trend of fast at first and slow later.Cultivated land presented a spatial distribution pattern roughly characterized by intensification in the central area and fragmentation in the marginal areas.Total grain yield increased from 1.72 × 108t to 2.42 × 108t,with an increase of 40.98％.The areas of general gain deficit and severe gain deficit regions continued to shrink,while the general grain surplus and important gain surplus regions centered around the"Shandong-Henan-Anhui Grain Sarplus Corridor"expanded continuously.The cultivated land area gravity center migrated a cumulative distance of 4.71 km,without an obvious directional trend.The grain yield gravity center moved a total distance 19.57 km along the path of"northwest-southwest-northwest-southeast".The sensitivity of grain yield to cultivated land area in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain had increased.The number of prefecture-level cities with low,moderate and high sensitivity increased from 17 to 37,accounting for 48.68％of the total,whereas insensitivty prefecture-level cities still dominated the overall distribution.[Conclusion]The spatiotemporal evolution of cultivated land area in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain and its dynamic response to grain yield exhibited fluctuations and differences across various development stages.The cultivated land area in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain is not the core factor dominating changes in grain yield.Accordingly,this study proposes the following countermeasures and suggestions:strengthening the protection of existing cultivated land and tap the grain yield potential of cultivated land;advance agricultural scientific and technological innovation to promote stable grain yield and income growth;break the reliance on the single grain production supply model and diversify grain supply sources.关键词
耕地面积/粮食产量/时空演化/重心模型/敏感度分析/动态响应/黄淮海平原Key words
cultivated land area/grain yield/spatiotemporal evolution/gravity center model/sensitivity analysis/dynamic response/Huang-Huai-Hai Plain分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
邱爽,温亚柯..黄淮海平原耕地面积时空演化及对粮食产量动态响应[J].广东农业科学,2026,53(3):119-134,16.基金项目
国家社会科学基金(13BJL010) （13BJL010）
四川省哲学社会科学基金后期资助项目(SCJJ23HQ04) （SCJJ23HQ04）
南充市社会科学研究"十四五"规划2024年度项目(NC24A019) （NC24A019）
西华师范大学基本科研业务费人文社科类项目(24SA004) （24SA004）
