干旱区地理2026，Vol.49Issue(5)：907-916,10.DOI:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.423
西藏气候基准值更新的气候响应与业务影响
Climate response and operational impact of updated climatological normals in Xizang
摘要
Abstract
To understand the impact of updating climatological normals on climate characteristics and operational assessments in Xizang of China,Based on the data of 38 national meteorological stations in Xizang from 1981 to 2023,the effects of updating the old and new climatological normals values from 1981 to 2010 and from 1991 to 2020 on climate change and business were analyzed.The results reveal the following:(1)Under the new climato-logical normals,the climate in Xizang is warmer and wetter than under the previous normals,with the annual mean temperature increasing by 0.3℃and annual precipitation increasing by 2.0%.Annual mean temperature in-creases are more pronounced in the western,northern,and northeastern regions,while annual mean precipitation shows uneven spatial distribution.(2)Updating climatological normals significantly affects climate-related opera-tions,such as the identification of warm winter events and the probability of extreme high and low temperatures.Under the new normals,the number of regional warm winter years in Xizang over the past 43 years decreased from 18 years to 9 years.(3)Based on the new climatological normals,the number of(significantly)high annual mean temperature years decreased from 16 years to 9 years,whereas the number of(significantly)low annual mean temperature years increased from 6 years to 12 years,resulting in a shift in the average temperature evalua-tion from high to low categories.The frequency of extreme high-temperature seasons decreases,whereas low-temperature years(seasons)increase.(4)The frequency of above-normal spring and summer years decreases,whereas above-normal autumn years increase.Meanwhile,the likelihood of extreme heavy precipitation increas-es in autumn but decreases in spring and summer.The observed changes,such as the reduction in warm winter years and the apparent increase in the probability of extreme low-temperature events,are primarily attributable to elevated statistical thresholds associated with warmer climatological normals.This reflects a statistical reconstruc-tion effect rather than an actual cooling trend or a real increase in extreme cold events in Xizang.关键词
气候基准值更新/气候评估体系/极端气候事件/西藏Key words
updated climatological normals/climate assessment system/extreme climate events/Xizang引用本文复制引用
次旺,杜军,扎西顿珠,陈鲜艳,肖卓靖,平措桑旦,刘赛..西藏气候基准值更新的气候响应与业务影响[J].干旱区地理,2026,49(5):907-916,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(U23A2006) （U23A2006）
西藏自治区科技计划项目揭榜挂帅专项(XZ202303ZY0002G) （XZ202303ZY0002G）
中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2024J071)资助 （CXFZ2024J071）
