干旱区地理2026，Vol.49Issue(5)：939-948,10.DOI:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.761
陕西省固碳服务供需关系时空演变特征及影响因素
Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of the supply and demand relationship of carbon sequestration services in Shaanxi Province
摘要
Abstract
Understanding the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and influencing mechanisms of the supply and demand of ecosystem carbon sequestration services is critical for solving carbon governance problems and achieving dual carbon goals.Taking Shaanxi Province of China as an example,this study measured carbon se-questration supply via sequestration capacity and demand via revised energy consumption.It also analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and the transformation process of the supply-demand relationship of car-bon sequestration services in Shaanxi Province from 2015 to 2023 and identified the dominant factors and interac-tive effects affecting the supply-demand relationship with the help of the geodetector method,filling the gaps on influencing factors of carbon sequestration service supply and demand.The results reveal that(1)From 2015 to 2023,the carbon sequestration supply in Shaanxi Province exhibited a fluctuating and slow growth trend,with significant differences among different regions,with only slight changes in spatial characteristics.The low-and high-value areas were distributed alternately from north to south.(2)From 2015 to 2023,the carbon sequestration demand in Shaanxi Province continued to increase rapidly.In 2023,the scope of high-value areas further expand-ed,whereas the scope of low-and sub-low-value areas decreased.(3)The supply-demand status of carbon seques-tration in Shaanxi Province shifted from mild surplus to mild deficit from 2015 to 2023,with a tendency of defi-cit expansion.The supply-demand status of most districts and counties shifted in a"declining"direction.Regard-ing spatial characteristics,a high in the north and south and low in the middle pattern was observed,with surplus districts/counties and deficit districts/counties distributed in clusters and their boundaries being distinct.(4)The impact of carbon sequestration demand on the supply-demand relationship was stronger than that of supply,with energy factors having the greatest impact,followed by socioeconomic factors,and natural factors having the smallest effect.The annual average precipitation,private car ownership,civil car ownership,population size,and industrial waste gas emissions were dominant factors affecting the supply-demand relationship.The interactive ef-fects of the dominant factors were all higher than those before the interaction;however,the interaction between industrial waste gas emissions and other factors showed a nonlinear enhancement effect.Therefore,the interac-tion effects of other factors were all characterized by bivariate enhancement.关键词
固碳服务/供需特征/影响因素/陕西省Key words
carbon sequestration services/supply and demand characteristics/influencing factors/Shaanxi Province引用本文复制引用
耿甜伟,韩晚星,林菲,李振环..陕西省固碳服务供需关系时空演变特征及影响因素[J].干旱区地理,2026,49(5):939-948,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(42301346) （42301346）
山西省基础研究计划(202203021222243,202303021222222) （202203021222243,202303021222222）
浙江省哲学社会科学规划课题(24NDQN126YBM) （24NDQN126YBM）
宁波财经学院硕士学位培育点重点项目(1320230943)资助 （1320230943）
