干旱区资源与环境2026，Vol.40Issue(5)：71-82,12.DOI:10.13448/j.cnki.jalre.2026.080
中国煤炭资源型城市碳减排的分类调控
Categorized regulation of carbon emissions reduction in China's coal resource-based cities:A study of differentiated pathways based on efficiency analysis and scenario prediction
摘要
Abstract
The effective low-carbon transition for coal resource-based cities holds strategic significance for the national coordinating energy security,economic development,and social stability.This study examines 45 prefecture-level coal-resources-based cities in China,categorizes them into four types:growing,mature,declining,and regenerating.The super-efficiency EBM-GML model is employed to analyze static and dynamic carbon emission efficiency from 2006 to 2020.Additionally,the GA-BP neural network model combined with scenario analysis is utilized to forecast the carbon emission trends of these cities through 2035.Results indicate:1)Overall static efficiency remains low,with mature cities showing an initial rise followed by decline,while the other three categories exhibit upward trends.Dynamic efficiency demonstrates fluctuating characteristics,with growth and regeneration cities experiencing greater volatility.2)Scenario projections indicate that while regenerative cities continue to see declining carbon emissions,the other three categories show increasing trends,with growing cities experiencing the fastest growth rate.Findings reveal that combined development scenarios can achieve effective emission reductions,with greater reduction potential in growing and regenerative cities.Based on this,we propose that coal resource-based cities require differentiated emission reduction pathways through refined classification and regulation.This approach provides effective decision-making support for the low-carbon transition of more coal resource-based cities globally.关键词
煤炭资源型城市/碳排放效率/城市分类/情景预测/差异化路径Key words
coal resource-based cities/carbon emission efficiency/city classification/scenario prediction/differentiated pathways分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
董凯丽,寇静娜,李玮..中国煤炭资源型城市碳减排的分类调控[J].干旱区资源与环境,2026,40(5):71-82,12.基金项目
国家社会科学基金一般项目(23BGJ036)资助. （23BGJ036）
