湖北农业科学2026，Vol.65Issue(2)：16-26,47,12.DOI:10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2026.02.004
伊犁河谷土地利用变化及生态系统服务价值响应的多情景模拟
Multi-scenario simulation of land use change and its impact on ecosystem service values in the Ili River Valley
摘要
Abstract
Based on the land use data of the Ili River Valley from 2000 to 2020,the PLUS model was used to simulate the land use evo-lution patterns under four scenarios of natural development,economic development,ecological protection,and planning intervention in 2030,and the temporal and spatial dynamic changes and spatial agglomeration characteristics of ecosystem service value(ESV)un-der each scenario were calculated and quantitatively analyzed.The results showed that under the four development scenarios,the ESV in 2030 in the study area was shown as ecological protection scenario＞planning intervention scenario＞natural development scenar-io＞economic development scenario.Under the natural development scenario,the area of forest land and grassland decreased signifi-cantly;under the economic development scenario,construction land expanded rapidly;under the ecological protection scenario,the rate of forest land reduction slowed down,and under the planning intervention scenario,the area of cultivated land increased substan-tially.The spatial distribution pattern of ESV in Yili River Valley under multi-scenario simulation in 2020 and 2030 was relatively sta-ble.The high-value area increased under the planning intervention scenario,and the high-value area in the north and south-central region changed to the low-value area under the economic development scenario.The extremely significant hot spots of ESV were main-ly distributed in the Ili River Basin and the southern Tianshan Mountains,and the extremely significant cold spots were mostly distrib-uted in the central and northern parts of the valley,corresponding to the spatial pattern of land use.Scientific planning and layout of fu-ture land use was the key path to enhance regional ESV and maintain a good ecological environment.关键词
生态系统服务价值/土地利用变化/PLUS模型/多情景模拟/伊犁河谷Key words
ecosystem service value/land use change/PLUS model/multi-scenario simulation/Ili River Valley分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
马傲,刘志有,孙义,秦彧,李建强,何骅,杨鸿彬..伊犁河谷土地利用变化及生态系统服务价值响应的多情景模拟[J].湖北农业科学,2026,65(2):16-26,47,12.基金项目
新疆维吾尔自治区高校基本科研项目(XJEDU2025Z005) （XJEDU2025Z005）
新疆维吾尔自治区2025年研究生科研创新项目(XJ2025G123) （XJ2025G123）
新疆农业大学2025年度研究生科研创新项目(XJAUGRI2025021) （XJAUGRI2025021）
国家自然科学基金项目(31901393) （31901393）
中国科学院"西部之光"项目(xbzgl-zb2022022) （xbzgl-zb2022022）
