湖北农业科学2026，Vol.65Issue(5)：1-6,16,7.DOI:10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2026.05.001
农业新质生产力发展对粮食主产区碳排放的影响
The impact of agricultural new quality productivity development on carbon emissions in major grain-producing regions
摘要
Abstract
To explore the impact effect and mechanism of agricultural new quality productivity on carbon emissions,based on provin-cial panel data from 13 major grain-producing regions between 2012 and 2023,an evaluation system for agricultural new quality pro-ductivity was constructed.The system encompassed new agricultural labourers,means of labour,and objects of labour.The two-way fixed effects model,mediating effect model,and quantile regression were used to empirically analyze its carbon reduction effects.The results showed that agricultural new quality productivity significantly and robustly reduced carbon emissions,a result that remained valid after multiple robustness tests.This effect was primarily achieved by promoting the transition of smallholder farmers toward mod-erate-scale operations,with the expansion of operational scale serving as a key mediating mechanism.A heterogeneity analysis revealed that the carbon reduction effect was more pronounced in northern regions than in southern regions,and this effect was consistent across high-,medium-,and low-emission areas.Based on this,it was recommended to strengthen policy support,optimize market guidance,and deepen rural institutional reforms,in order to provide references for the green and low-carbon transition of agriculture.关键词
农业新质生产力/碳排放/粮食主产区/双向固定效应/中介效应Key words
agricultural new quality productivity/carbon emissions/major grain-producing regions/two-way fixed effects/mediat-ing effect分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
赵姚阳,杨银春,吴保林..农业新质生产力发展对粮食主产区碳排放的影响[J].湖北农业科学,2026,65(5):1-6,16,7.基金项目
教育部人文社科基金项目(25YJA630039) （25YJA630039）
