河海大学学报（自然科学版）2026，Vol.54Issue(3)：28-36,160,10.DOI:10.3876/j.issn.1000-1980.2026.03.004
基于盘古气象大模型的台风路径及台风浪波高预报研究
Research on prediction of typhoon tracks and typhoon wave heights based on Pangu-Weather
摘要
Abstract
Surface meteorological elements and upper-air meteorological elements under typhoon weather conditions were predicted using Pangu-Weather,and the prediction of typhoon tracks was studied combined with the tropical cyclone tracking algorithm.The SWAN model was driven based on the typhoon track prediction results of Pangu-Weather and the predicted wind field data improved by a direct correction method.The calculated significant wave height data were compared with the measured data for verification,thereby evaluating the effectiveness of the model in predicting typhoon tracks and typhoon waves in Guangdong Province and Hainan Island.The results indicate that Pangu-Weather can achieve long-term typhoon track prediction,and the results are superior to those of the high-resolution numerical atmospheric model(ECMWF-HRES),but Pangu-Weather underestimates the typhoon wind field.Combining the typhoon track predicted by Pangu-Weather with the typhoon wind field improved by the direct correction method to drive the wave field can effectively improve the prediction accuracy of typhoon wave heights.关键词
盘古气象大模型/台风路径预报/台风浪/波高预报/热带气旋追踪算法Key words
Pangu-Weather/typhoon track prediction/typhoon wave/wave height prediction/tropical cyclone tracking algorithm引用本文复制引用
胡正元,冯曦,冯卫兵,倪兴也,秦知朋,吴浩宇..基于盘古气象大模型的台风路径及台风浪波高预报研究[J].河海大学学报（自然科学版）,2026,54(3):28-36,160,10.基金项目
装备预研教育部联合基金项目(8091B022123) （8091B022123）
江苏省水利科技项目(2022023) （2022023）
港口航道泥沙工程交通行业重点实验室开放课题项目(YK223001-3) （YK223001-3）
国家自然科学基金项目(52471282) （52471282）
