环境工程学报2026，Vol.20Issue(4)：1071-1080,10.DOI:10.12030/j.cjee.202508013
基于Mann-Kendall检验和模糊综合评价法的黄河三盛公断面2011-2024年水质变化趋势分析
Analysis of water quality variation trends at the Sanshenggong section of the Yellow River from 2011 to 2024 based on Mann-Kendall test and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method
摘要
Abstract
The Sanshenggong Section is a pivotal hydrological monitoring and control section on the Yellow River,where water quality directly affects the ecological security and sustainable utilization of water resources in the middle and lower reaches.Using water quality monitoring data from this section between 2011 to 2024,this study employed the Mann-Kendall test to identify abrupt change points in water quality trends.A combined evaluation framework was then employed,integrating the Single Factor Evaluation Method and a Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method,with weights by both the CRITIC and Entropy,to systematically assess the evolutionary trajectory of water quality.The Mann-Kendall test identified 2013 and 2019 as water quality abrupt change points.Water quality showed non-significant improvement during 2013-2015,but shifted to significant improvement after 2016.Single-factor evluation indicated that total phosphorus(TP)was the main over-standard factors during 2011-2012,and a continuous decline in TP drove the water quality category to improve from Grade III to within the range of Grade II standard limits in 2013.The combined weighting method highlighted the permanganate index as the primary pollutant,with a weight of 28.96％;its declining concentration served as the core driver of water quality improvement.Fuzzy evaluation revealed that the membership value of Grade III water dropped to zero in 2013,indicating a stable shift towards superior water quality.However,a phased rebound in the membership value of Grade II water suggests at a potential risk of quality regression.This study demonstrates that the Mann-Kendall test,single factor evluation and the improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method can effectively capature the water quality changes at the monitoring section,thereby providing a scientific basis for precise water quality management and ecological protection in the middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River.关键词
黄河/三盛公/Mann-Kendall检验/模糊综合评价法/水质评价Key words
Yellow River/Sanshenggong section/Mann-Kendall test/fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method/water quality assessment分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
郁永坤,张列宇,杜彩丽,高生旺,柏杨巍,卫毅梅,田振军..基于Mann-Kendall检验和模糊综合评价法的黄河三盛公断面2011-2024年水质变化趋势分析[J].环境工程学报,2026,20(4):1071-1080,10.基金项目
生态环境部河口与海岸带环境重点实验室开放基金(2024YSKY-04) （2024YSKY-04）
国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3201504) （2021YFC3201504）
