火力与指挥控制2026，Vol.51Issue(4)：1-10,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-0640.2026.04.001
基于反事实的可解释空战关键节点确定方法
An Interpretable Counterfactual-based Method for Determining Critical Nodes in Air Combat
摘要
Abstract
The core of the post-combat analysis of air combat is to achieve rapid assessment and tactical optimization through the analysis of critical nodes.However,existing studies have not fully considered the causal relationship between situational features and combat outcomes,and their results lack interpretability.To address this issue,an interpretable counterfactual-based method for determining critical nodes in air combat is proposed.First,counterfactual analysis is used to compute the global importance scores of features for feature selection,thereby providing weight coefficients for situational assessment.Next,an improved random forest model,integrated with the counterfactual framework,is applied for real-time prediction,exploring the threshold ranges of joint features.Finally,critical nodes are identified as either moments when there is a significant change in the situation and a shift in the predicted label,or when the prediction is"victory"but the friendly forces are at a disadvantage.By incorporating maneuver recognition and considering human factors such as pilot decision-making,the model's interpretability and accuracy are enhanced.Simulation experiments demonstrate that the proposed method effectively identifies critical nodes and provides a more realistic analytical perspective.关键词
空战战后复盘/关键节点/胜利预测/可解释性/反事实Key words
post-combat analysis of air combat/critical nodes/victory prediction/interpretability/counterfactual分类
军事科技引用本文复制引用
郑巍,李胜,潘浩,樊鑫,滕建方,肖鹏..基于反事实的可解释空战关键节点确定方法[J].火力与指挥控制,2026,51(4):1-10,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(62467005) （62467005）
中央军委装备部技术基础资助项目(JZX7J202402ZL006800) （JZX7J202402ZL006800）
