节水灌溉Issue(5)：40-47,8.DOI:10.12396/jsgg.2025404
四川省水生态安全与驱动力预测研究
Study on Water Ecological Security and Driving Force Prediction in Sichuan Province
摘要
Abstract
Predicting the level of sustainable utilization of regional water resources under the impacts of climate change and human activities is of great significance for formulating reasonable water resource planning strategies and ensuring the sustainable development of social economy.By coupling the three-dimensional water ecological footprint with system dynamics,a system dynamics model of the three-dimensional water ecological footprint in Sichuan Province was established to dynamically predict the water ecological security levels under four scenarios considering the impacts of climate change and human activities.On this basis,the Tapio decoupling model and the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI)model were adopted to quantify the decoupling relationship between water ecological footprint and economic development,as well as the driving forces causing changes in water ecological footprint.The results show that:the water resources are in an ecological surplus state under all four scenarios;the consumption of water resource capital flow is in a relatively stable state;the decoupling effect between water ecological footprint and economic growth presents strong and relatively strong decoupling states;the economic effect and technological effect are the primary driving forces promoting and inhibiting the growth of water ecological footprint,respectively.Through comparison,the water ecological security level under scenario TS1 is the highest,which promotes the coordinated and sustainable development of water resource utilization,social and economic development,and ecological environment protection,and is suitable for the future development model of Sichuan Province.关键词
气候变化/三维水生态足迹/系统动力学/对数平均迪氏指数LMDI模型/Tapio脱钩模型/四川省Key words
climate change/three-dimensional water ecological footprint/system dynamics/LMDI model/tapio decoupling model/Sichuan Province分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
李影,王延龄,周晓军..四川省水生态安全与驱动力预测研究[J].节水灌溉,2026,(5):40-47,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(51939007). （51939007）
