气象与环境学报2026，Vol.42Issue(1)：12-19,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2026.01.002
2021—2060年黑龙江省不同排放情景下植被生产力预估
Estimation of vegetation productivity in Heilongjiang Province under different emission scenarios from 2021 to 2060
摘要
Abstract
Estimating the spatiotemporal evolution and carbon sequestration potential of terrestrial vegetation under different emission scenarios in Heilongjiang Province from 2021 to 2060 is of great significance to achieving the"dual carbon"goals.Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)multi-model ensem-ble simulation data,this study drove the carbon cycle model(BEPS)to analyze the vegetation productivity of ter-restrial ecosystems under three emission scenarios(SSP126,SSP245 and SSP585)in Heilongjiang Province from 2021 to 2060.Quantitative estimations of gross primary productivity(GPP)and net primary productivity(NPP)in Heilongjiang Province are generated at a spatial resolution of 1 km.The results showed that the corrected BEPS model driving data exhibited improved accuracy in Heilongjiang Province from 2021 to 2060,thereby enhancing the accuracy of vegetation productivity prediction.Under three emission scenarios,the vegetation NPP in most re-gions of Heilongjiang Province was higher than 500 gC·m-·2 a-1 from 2021 to 2060.Compared with other regions,the forest areas in the central and southern part of Heilongjiang Province had the strongest vegetation productivity,and the vegetation NPP remaining above 700 gC·m-·2 a-1.Under different emission scenarios,the overall vegetation productivity of Heilongjiang Province increased from 2021 to 2060,among which the Daxing′anling forest area and the eastern agricultural region showed the greatest increase.Compared with the SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios,the SSP585 scenario had the highest vegetation productivity in Heilongjiang Province,with the greatest increase and the largest interannual variability.关键词
CMIP6/BEPS模型/黑龙江省/植被生产力Key words
CMIP6/BEPS model/Heilongjiang Province/Vegetation productivity分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
贾小龙,于敏,薄宇,徐作敏,阮多,王营,秦子淇..2021—2060年黑龙江省不同排放情景下植被生产力预估[J].气象与环境学报,2026,42(1):12-19,8.基金项目
中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2022J041、CXFZ2024J052)资助. （CXFZ2022J041、CXFZ2024J052）
