气象与环境学报2026，Vol.42Issue(1)：66-74,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2026.01.007
不同ENSO背景下2021年和2023年汉江流域秋汛期降水特征及成因分析
Analysis of precipitation characteristics and causes of autumn flood season in the Hanjiang River Basin in 2021 and 2023 in ENSO events
摘要
Abstract
Serious autumn floods occurred in the autumn flood season(September-October)in the Hanjiang River Basin in 2021 and 2023 under different ENSO backgrounds,this paper compared and analyzed the characteristics and impacts of precipitation during the autumn flood season in 2021 and 2023,as well as the similarities and differ-ences between atmospheric circulation and external SST forcing in these two years by using correlation analysis and regression analysis,based on the NCEP reanalysiss data,and the NOAA sea temperature data.The results show that:The autumn flood season precipitation in 2021 and 2023 in the Hanjiang River basin ranked third and fifth in intensity in the same period in history,respectively.The atmospheric circulations in 2021 and 2023 were similar,and the northeastern hemisphere circulation field presented a"low-high"distribution from west to east.The anom-aly center is located from Lake Balkhash to the west of Lake Baikal and from the Bohai Sea to the northwest Pacif-ic Ocean.The west Pacific subtropical high is stronger,and the westward extension is obvious.The sea temperature varied obviously in the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean and in the tropical North Atlantic Ocean(TNA).In 2021,the developed La Niña SST distribution was reflected,with the warmer TNA led to the emergence of the autumn flood rainy circulation.In 2023,TNA reached the highest temperature in history,and the synergistic effect of the two had stronger influence than that of El Niño.Therefore,the Bohai Sea to the Japanese archipelago in China was controlled by an obvious anticyclone,and the Balkhash to Baikal Lake presented a low trough,showing an obvious autumn flood precipitation circulation configuration pattern.This research findings can provide references for the prediction of precipitation of autumn flood season in Hanjiang River Basin under the different backgrounds of ex-ternal SST forcing.关键词
汉江流域/秋汛期/热带北大西洋/ENSO事件Key words
Hanjiang River Basin/Autumn flood season/TNA/ENSO events分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
张灵,熊开国,徐迎春,陈紫嫣..不同ENSO背景下2021年和2023年汉江流域秋汛期降水特征及成因分析[J].气象与环境学报,2026,42(1):66-74,9.基金项目
湖北省自然科学基金项目(2025AFD424、2022CFD014、2023AFD097)、中国气象局复盘总结专项(FPZJ2026－082)、武汉市气象科技联合基金(2024020901030459)和全国暴雨研究开放基金(BYKJ2024Z07)共同资助. （2025AFD424、2022CFD014、2023AFD097）
