林业经济2025，Vol.47Issue(12)：64-80,17.
基于扎根理论的林草政策对森林碳汇的影响路径分析
Impact path analysis of forestry and grassland policies on forest carbon sink based on grounded theory
摘要
Abstract
Facing the global climate change challenge,China has proposed the"dual carbon"targets to improve the quality of the ecological environment.Forest carbon sink,as the most important part of the ecosystem carbon sinks,is a key link in the global carbon cycle.Based on grounded theory,this article analyzed policy texts issued by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China,the State Council,and forestry-related departments from 2006 to 2024 through coding.It constructed a theoretical model of the policy impact on forest carbon sink from the perspective of the stages of forestry and grassland policies.The article used the volume expansion method,the improved biomass factor conversion method and the average biomass method combined with the GM(1,1)model to calculate and predict the total carbon sequestration of trees,understory vegetation and soil.It then derived the average annual forest carbon sink for different years to represent the potential for forest carbon sink development.Finally,the article explained the impact of forestry and grassland policies on forest carbon sink development in terms of policy thinking,policy implementation,policy support and policy environment.The results showed that:(1)From 2009 to 2028,the average annual forest carbon sinks in China every five years were 0.2293,1.0498,1.2576,and 1.2097 hundred million tons,respectively,indicating a great development potential of forest carbon sink.(2)In the impact paths,policy thinking changed through feedback from policy environment and played a guiding role in policy formulation.Combined with the driving force of policy implementation and the safeguarding role of policy support for forest ecological environment,it affected the development of forest carbon sink.The article innovatively used grounded theory to construct a theoretical analysis framework combined with the measurement of forest carbon sink potential,providing a comprehensive analysis of the impact pathways of forestry and grassland policies on forest carbon sink development.The article put forward policy implications such as accelerating the improvement of the policy system for support and talent and technology construction.关键词
林草政策/碳汇潜力/扎根理论/灰色预测/路径分析Key words
forestry and grassland policies/carbon sink potential/grounded theory/grey forecasting/path analysis分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
王煜承,付伟,罗明灿,陈建成..基于扎根理论的林草政策对森林碳汇的影响路径分析[J].林业经济,2025,47(12):64-80,17.基金项目
云南省哲学社会科学规划项目"人口老龄化对农村家庭消费碳排放的空间效应与异质性影响"(YB202585),国家自然科学基金项目"异质性视角下西部家庭消费间接碳排放的时空演变与驱动机制研究"(72264035),云南省兴滇英才青年人才专项项目"数字经济对云南家庭消费碳排放的影响效应及减排机制研究"(990124085). （YB202585）
