牡丹江师范学院学报（自然科学版）Issue(2)：24-29,6.
GA-BP神经网络预测组合模型的构建与全球气温预测
Construction of GA-BP Neural Network Prediction Combination Model and Global Temperature Prediction
摘要
Abstract
A GA-BP neural network prediction combination model(GBSM)was constructed to forecast global temperature.The GBSM model improved the roulette wheel method,enhanced the convergence of the algorithm,and selected the genetic chromosomes with higher fitness.Experimental results showed that GBSM had advantages such as high accuracy and good stability,effectively improving the prediction accuracy.The future temperature trend is expected to rise"rapidly at first and then slowly":the annual average temperature will increase by about 0.25℃ before 2030,and the rate of temperature rise will slow down from 2030 to 2060.By 2100,the temperature will be about 2.0℃ higher than before industrialization,and it is difficult to break the 20℃ threshold.关键词
GA-BP神经网络/气温预测/改进型轮盘赌Key words
GA-BP neural network/temperature forecasting/improved roulette/stability分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
袁炜,胡艳丽,葛正,章俊杰..GA-BP神经网络预测组合模型的构建与全球气温预测[J].牡丹江师范学院学报（自然科学版）,2026,(2):24-29,6.基金项目
安徽省"六卓越一拔尖"项目(2024zybj039) （2024zybj039）
2024年安徽省教育厅科学研究项目(2024AH051732) （2024AH051732）
2025安徽省教育厅科学研究项目(2025AHGXZK60243) （2025AHGXZK60243）
2025年安徽省国家级大学生创新创业计划训练项目(202510381001S) （202510381001S）
淮南师范学院教学创新团队项目(2024hsjxtd02) （2024hsjxtd02）
