生态与农村环境学报2026，Vol.42Issue(5)：633-641,9.DOI:10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2025.0150
2015-2024年湖南省PM2.5污染特征及健康影响研究
Variations of PM2.5 Concentrations and PM2.5-related Health Effects in Hunan Province during 2015-2024
摘要
Abstract
Based on the monitoring data of air pollutants in 14 cities(prefecture)in Hunan Province from 2015 to 2024,the global exposure mortality model(GEMM)and the value of statistical life method(VSL)were comprehensively applied to systematically evaluate the PM2.5-related mortality burden and health economic loss in Hunan Province under the current pollution levels and different PM2.5 pollution control scenarios.The results indicate:(1)From 2015 to 2024,air quality in Hunan Province demonstrated a consistent improvement trend.Except for Yiyang City,Loudi City and Chenzhou City,the annual averaged PM2.5 concentrations in the other cities(prefecture)all exhibited a significant downward trend.The decrease rates of PM2.5 concentration in the cities of Huaihua,Shaoyang and Changsha were relatively larger compared to other cities,with their annual decrease rates all greater than 2.2 μg·m-3·a-1.The emission reduction measures was the main reason for the decrease in PM2.5 concentration in Hunan Province in recent years.(2)In 2022,the excess PM2.5-re-lated deaths in Hunan Province still amounted to 60 905(95%CI:46 474-74 923),and the corresponding health eco-nomic loss reached 114.925(95%CI:87.698-141.378)billion yuan,accounting for 2.4%(95%CI:1.8%-2.9%)the gross domestic product(GDP).(3)Based on stricter PM2.5 pollution control goals,such as achieving the WHO lev-els of IT-2,IT-3,IT-4,and AQG for annual averaged PM2.5 concentrations,10 925,25 175,34 028 and 46 936 deaths would be decreased,respectively,and health and economic losses would be reduced by 18.0%,41.5%,56.0%,and 77.3%,respectively.Due to variations in statistical parameters and methodologies between urban and rural areas,as well as differences in research approaches,the research findings are subject to a certain degree of uncertainty.(4)It is recom-mended to further refine local statistical methodologies and parameters to enable a more scientifically rigorous assessment of the health impacts of PM2.5 pollution,and inform region-specific emission reduction strategies and establish more stringent local air quality standards in order to sustainably enhance air quality,and ultimately safeguard public health.关键词
PM2.5/暴露死亡模型/死亡负担/经济损失/湖南省Key words
PM2.5/exposure mortality model/mortality burden/economic loss/Hunan Province分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
贾海鹰,江涤非,周威,廖春花..2015-2024年湖南省PM2.5污染特征及健康影响研究[J].生态与农村环境学报,2026,42(5):633-641,9.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2024YFC3713603) （2024YFC3713603）
湖南省重点研发计划(2024AQ2004) （2024AQ2004）
湖南省自然科学联合基金项目(2025JJ80278) （2025JJ80278）
