现代农业研究2026，Vol.32Issue(4)：41-48,8.
贵州省种植业降碳—减污—增长协同作用研究
Research on the Synergistic Effects of Carbon Reduction,Pollution Mitigation,and Growth in the Planting Industry of Guizhou Province
摘要
Abstract
The synergistic promotion of carbon reduction,pollution mitigation,green expansion,and growth represents an indispensable path for accelerating the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development.Based on data related to the planting industry production in Guizhou Province from 2006 to 2023,this paper con-structs indices for carbon reduction,pollution mitigation,and growth.It employs a coupling coordination model and a Vector Autoregression(VAR)model to empirically analyze the synergy level,evolutionary patterns,and dynamic feed-back mechanisms of the carbon reduction-pollution mitigation-growth system in the planting industry of Guizhou Province.The results indicate the following:(1)The carbon reduction,pollution mitigation,and growth indices in the planting industry of Guizhou Province all exhibit an upward trend,with increases of 6.5 times,8.3 times,and 17.5 times,respectively.Guizhou has achieved certain success in carbon reduction,pollution mitigation,and promoting growth,with policy regulations and technological innovation likely serving as the primary driving factors.(2)The syner-gy level of the carbon reduction-pollution mitigation-growth system in the planting industry of Guizhou Province contin-ues to improve,yet it only reaches a marginally coordinated state,indicating a relatively low level of synergy.The system demonstrates a staged evolutionary pattern characterized by initiation,acceleration,and deepening.(3)The dy-namic feedback results reveal that,over the next 10 periods,the carbon reduction system and the growth system will significantly promote each other,while the feedback direction between the pollution mitigation system and the growth system will be opposite.Both the carbon reduction and growth systems will provide positive feedback to the pollution mitigation system.(4)The variance decomposition results further demonstrate that,over the next 10 periods,the growth system will be significantly influenced by itself in the short term,with the long-term contributions of the carbon re-duction and pollution mitigation systems gradually increasing.The carbon reduction system will be predominantly influ-enced by itself in the short term,with the long-term contributions of the growth and pollution mitigation systems sig-nificantly increasing.The pollution mitigation system will not be significantly influenced by itself in the short term,with its long-term contribution decreasing and the contribution of the growth system continuously increasing.Based on these conclusions,this paper proposes corresponding countermeasures and suggestions in terms of policy coordination,technological innovation,and the cultivation of characteristic industries,aiming to provide theoretical references for achieving green and sustainable development in the planting industry of Guizhou Province.关键词
贵州省/种植业/降碳-减污-增长协同/耦合协调模型/VAR模型Key words
Guizhou Province/planting industry/synergy among carbon reduction,pollution mitigation,and growth/coupling coordination model/Vector Auto Regression model分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
申丽,袁玉婷,张克新,李青山,王衍,康雄..贵州省种植业降碳—减污—增长协同作用研究[J].现代农业研究,2026,32(4):41-48,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目"祁连山老虎沟12号冰川及其流域不同介质中核素钚的分布特征及来源示踪研究"(项目编号:42163001) （项目编号:42163001）
贵州财经大学2025年度校级科研项目"农业新质生产力对我国农业碳排放的影响及空间溢出效应研究"(项目编号:2025BAZYSY120). （项目编号:2025BAZYSY120）
