南方电网技术2026，Vol.20Issue(4)：4-15,12.DOI:10.13648/j.cnki.issn1674-0629.2026.04.001
平稳工况下电力系统负荷特性参数辨识的内生性问题与工具变量估计方法
Endogeneity Issues and Instrumental Variable Estimation Methods for Identifying Load Characteristic Parameters of Power Systems Under Steady-State Conditions
摘要
Abstract
Accurate identification of load voltage exponent and frequency characteristic parameters under steady-state operating condi-tions is essential for the stability assessment and control of power systems.However,since internal load disturbances are often cor-related with system-side voltage and frequency fluctuations,the conventional ordinary least squares(OLS)method may yield significant bias in such scenarios.To address this issue,this paper introduces the instrumental variable(IV)method and under the as-sumption that internal disturbances follow short-range correlated colored noise,establishes a statistical estimation framework for load characteristic parameters identification to resolve the endogeneity problem.Firstly,the formation mechanism of endogeneity in closed-loop systems and the resulting estimation bias are analyzed.Secondly,an IV-based identification procedure is established,which consists of steps such as correlation analysis,instrumental variable construction with multi-port information,and parameter estimation using the two-stage least squares method.The unbiasedness and variability characteristics of IV estimation are systemati-cally analyzed,and criteria for selecting the lag order L are proposed.Finally,simulation studies are carried out to investigate the influence of different IV parameter settings on the estimation results,and the proposed method is validated from multiple perspectives,including endogeneity intensity and the proportion of static versus dynamic load components.The results demonstrate that the proposed method can markedly enhance the accuracy of load characteristic parameters identification under steady-state conditions with strong internal disturbances.关键词
平稳工况/负荷特性参数辨识/相关性分析/工具变量/内生性Key words
steady-state conditions/load characteristic parameters identification/correlation analysis/instrumental variables/endogeneity分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
沈沉,周博英..平稳工况下电力系统负荷特性参数辨识的内生性问题与工具变量估计方法[J].南方电网技术,2026,20(4):4-15,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(U23B6008). Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(U23B6008). （U23B6008）
