南京大学学报（自然科学版）2026，Vol.62Issue(3)：409-421,13.DOI:10.13232/j.cnki.jnju.2026.03.007
新疆伊犁河流域近30年极端降水时空动态
Spatiotemporal dynamics of extreme precipitation in the Ili River Basin,Xinjiang over the past 30 years
摘要
Abstract
Based on daily precipitation data from 11 national surface meteorological stations(1991-2020),this study utilized the RClimDex model to calculate six precipitation indices and five precipitation-day indices,systematically investigating the evolution of extreme precipitation in the Ili River Basin,Xinjiang.Using linear trend analysis,the Mann-Kendall abrupt change test,and Morlet wavelet analysis,we systematically examined the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of extreme precipitation in the Ili River Basin,Xinjiang.The results showed that,with the exception of consecutive dry days and consecutive wet days(which decreased at rates of 0.86 and 0.12 d·(10 a)-1,espectively),all other precipitation indices exhibited an upward trend.There were multiple mutation points in each index,and the mutation time was not obvious.Spatially,the maximum one-day precipitation shared a similar pattern with the maximum five-day precipitation,with values increasing from the central-western part of the Ili River Basin toward the surrounding areas.Annual precipitation decreased from the east and southwest toward the northwest of the basin.In contrast,the number of days with moderate,heavy,and torrential rain increased from the northwest toward the southeast.The dominant period for consecutive dry days was 8～12 a,with the oscillation being particularly strong during 2000-2010.The periodicity of consecutive wet days was weak,and short-term oscillations of 4～6 a were observed during certain periods.All other indices displayed significant short-period oscillations of 4～8 a over the 1991-2020 period.After 2005,the oscillation energy increased,with a corresponding intensification of interannual variation.关键词
伊犁河流域/极端降水/时空动态/突变检验/周期分析Key words
Ili River Basin/extreme precipitation/spatiotemporal dynamics/mutation test/periodic analysis分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
李文博,袁子玥,张月欣,胡志超,李长生,朱嘉毅,马秀枝..新疆伊犁河流域近30年极端降水时空动态[J].南京大学学报（自然科学版）,2026,62(3):409-421,13.基金项目
第三次新疆综合科学考察项目(2022xjkk040302) （2022xjkk040302）
