农业现代化研究2026，Vol.47Issue(2)：225-238,14.DOI:10.13872/j.1000-0275.2025.0548
气候变化对东北黑土区未来保障中国稻谷供给的影响分析
Impacts of climate change on the future role of the Black Soil Region of Northeast China in safeguarding national rice supply
摘要
Abstract
Climate change has become an important factor affecting the stability of agricultural production and national food security.As one of China's three major staple crops,rice production and circulation are directly related to food self sufficiency,market price stability,and the protection of farmers'incomes.Therefore,a systematic analysis of the impacts of climate change on rice supply and circulation patterns is of considerable theoretical and practical significance.Based on a single country,multi-regional computable general equilibrium model of China(SinoTERM),this study examines the effects of climate change on rice supply,prices,and circulation patterns under different combinations of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)and Representative Concentration Pathways(RCPs),with a particular focus on the critical role of the Northeast Black Soil Region in the national rice supply system.The results show that rice yields across China are projected to decline significantly from 2030 to 2050,accompanied by rising prices,reduced regional self-sufficiency,and an expansion in inter-regional circulation.Jiangsu,Jiangxi,and Hunan provinces in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Plain,together with the Northeast Black Soil Region,account for 9.36%,8.89%,10.58%,and 6.32%of total national rice circulation,respectively.Rice from the Northeast Black Soil Region is mainly transported to Shandong,Guangdong,Henan,and Zhejiang provinces,which account for 5.05%,4.84%,4.10%,and 4.07%of total outflows from this region.Under climate change conditions,rice outflows from the Northeast Black Soil Region increase compared with those under corresponding socioeconomic scenarios,with an additional 2.027 million to 2.187 million tons.Among these increases,Heilongjiang accounts for 42%,followed by Jilin with 32%,Inner Mongolia with 16%,and Liaoning with 10%.This study reveals the long-term safeguarding role of the Northeast Black Soil Region in ensuring national rice supply under climate change,and provides a scientific basis for the formulation of black soil protection policies and the optimization of national grain reserves.The findings have important practical implications for addressing climate risks and ensuring national rice supply and demand balance and food security.关键词
气候与作物生长/气候变化/粮食供需/流通格局/保障作用/东北黑土区Key words
climate and crop growth/climate change/food supply and demand/circulation patterns/safeguarding role/Black Soil Region of Northeast China分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
李志慧,王艺霏,郑义菲..气候变化对东北黑土区未来保障中国稻谷供给的影响分析[J].农业现代化研究,2026,47(2):225-238,14.基金项目
中国科学院A类战略性先导科技专项项目(XDA28060200).Supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA28060200). （XDA28060200）
