农业现代化研究2026，Vol.47Issue(2)：239-250,12.DOI:10.13872/j.1000-0275.2025.0885
粮食主产区粮食供应链韧性时空演变及影响因素分析
Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of grain supply chain resilience in China's major grain-producing regions
摘要
Abstract
Enhancing the resilience of grain supply chains in major production regions is crucial for coordinating regional food security with agricultural modernization.This study constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system based on the"production-circulation-sales"framework.Using the entropy method,spatial autocorrelation,and kernel density estimation,this paper analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution of supply chain resilience across major production regions during 2010-2023,while the obstacle degree and Tobit models identify structural and level-based influencing factors.Key results show:1)overall resilience exhibits a fluctuating upward trend with a clear regional hierarchy(Huang-Huai-Hai>Northeast>Mid-downstream Yangtze River);2)spatial gradient differentiation has intensified,with significant positive spatial autocorrelation and widening interprovincial disparities;and 3)low self-sufficiency and delays in quality improvement are the primary constraints on resilience,whereas economic development,rural informatization,agricultural insurance,and industrial agglomeration significantly enhance resilience,in contrast to the negative effects of rising temperatures,urbanization,and population aging.Based on these findings,the study recommends implementing differentiated regional resilience strategies,optimizing spatial coordination mechanisms,addressing critical bottlenecks,and strengthening key supportive factors.关键词
粮食主产区/粮食供应链韧性/时空差异/影响因素/障碍度模型Key words
major grain-producing regions/grain supply chain resilience/spatiotemporal differences/influencing factors/obstacle degree model分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
张志新,宋玉苗,王儒骁..粮食主产区粮食供应链韧性时空演变及影响因素分析[J].农业现代化研究,2026,47(2):239-250,12.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重点项目(24AJY025).Supported by the National Social Science Foundation of China(24AJY025). （24AJY025）
