农业与技术2026，Vol.46Issue(5)：29-34,6.DOI:10.19754/j.nyyjs.20260530005
基于GARP和MAXENT模型的南美斑潜蝇在中国适生区的预测
Prediction of Suitable Habitats of Liriomyza huidobrensis in China Based on GARP and MaxEnt Models
摘要
Abstract
Liriomyza huidobrensis Blanchard,a globally invasive agricultural pest,poses a severe threat to agricultural production and the ecological environment in China.To accurately identify its potential distribution range in China,this study integrated data from115 valid distribution sites with WorldClim global meteorological interpolation data(Bio1～Bio19),and constructed a suitable habitat prediction system by applying GARP,MaxEnt niche models and GIS technology to analyze the prediction differences between the two models and the dominant environmental factors affecting the pest"s distribution.The results showed that the AUC value of the MaxEnt model reached 0.990,indicating an extremely high prediction accuracy;precipitation of the warmest quarter(Bio18),mean temperature of the driest quarter(Bio9)and precipitation of the wettest quarter(Bio16)were the core environmental factors influencing the distribution of L.huidobrensis.The GARP model predicted that the highly suitable habitats accounted for 27.60%of the study area,covering most regions of East China,Central China,South China and Southwest China,with extensive suitable areas also distributed in Northwest China and Northeast China.In contrast,the MaxEnt model predicted that the highly suitable habitats only accounted for 3.79%,which were mainly concentrated in Yunnan,Guizhou and Sichuan provinces,as well as the two sides of the Yanshan-Taihang Mountains-Wushan-Xuefeng Mountains belt.The research results can provide a scientific basis for the quarantine,prevention and control,as well as monitoring and early warning of L.huidobrensis in China,and have important practical significance for reducing the invasive hazards of this pest.关键词
南美斑潜蝇/GARP模型/MaxEnt模型/适生区预测/环境因子Key words
Liriomyza huidobrensis/GARP model/MaxEnt model/suitable habitat prediction/environmental factors分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
叶昭明,何春香,王伟,高恒创,陈春宾,吴鑫柱,陈荣桂..基于GARP和MAXENT模型的南美斑潜蝇在中国适生区的预测[J].农业与技术,2026,46(5):29-34,6.基金项目
国家重点研发项目(项目编号:2023YFD1401300) （项目编号:2023YFD1401300）
