气候变化研究进展2026，Vol.22Issue(2)：213-223,11.DOI:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2025.276
中国碳中和目标下不同减排路径的能源转型差异研究
Divergent energy transition pathways under varied carbon emission reduction trajectories for China's carbon neutrality goal
摘要
Abstract
Global temperature control goals require constraining anthropogenic carbon emissions within a limited carbon budget,where different allocation schemes significantly influence national emission constraints and varying pathway strategies profoundly impact energy transition processes.China's carbon neutrality commitment necessitates unprecedented energy system transformation within three decades,making comprehensive assessment of pathway impacts under global carbon budgets critically important.This study developed 24 carbon-neutral energy transition scenarios combining carbon budget allocation schemes with pathway strategies,utilizing the Global Change Analysis Model(GCAM)to analyze impacts on primary energy consumption,end-use electrification,power structure transformation,and carbon pricing.Results demonstrate that under 1.5 ℃target,China's carbon budget remains severely constrained at 103.4-141.3 Gt CO2,while 2 ℃ target permits larger budget of 239.7-329.4 Gt CO2,with equity-based principles imposing more stringent constraints than grandfathering principles due to historical emission considerations.The choice of emission reduction pathways will profoundly shape the trajectory of China's energy transition.Under 1.5℃ target,an emission reduction strategy characterized by initial delay followed by accelerated action("delayed-action")would substantially increase reliance on CO2 removal technologies.Conversely,"rapid-then-slow"and"intermediate pathways"will effectively avoid potential increases in social costs.Specifically,within the 1.5 ℃ target,the average carbon price by 2060 under the"delayed-action"pathway is projected to be 56％to 89％higher than under the"rapid-then-slow"and"intermediate pathways".This persists at 9％-21％even under 2 ℃ target.Furthermore,the new Nationally Determined Contribution(NDC)target for China to exceed 30％non-fossil energy consumption by 2035 will surpass most 2℃ target scenarios.Among these,the non-fossil energy consumption in the"rapid-then-slow"and"intermediate pathway"scenarios for 2035 is closer to China's new NDC target.关键词
碳预算/能源转型/碳中和/减排路径/全球变化评估模型(GCAM)Key words
Carbon budget/Energy transition/Carbon neutrality/Carbon emission reduction pathways/Global Change Analysis Model(GCAM)引用本文复制引用
王家兴,何小玉,王雨涵,李彦,鲁玺,贺克斌..中国碳中和目标下不同减排路径的能源转型差异研究[J].气候变化研究进展,2026,22(2):213-223,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(72025401,72140003,72104117,72243007) （72025401,72140003,72104117,72243007）
