热带地理2026，Vol.46Issue(5)：796-808,13.DOI:10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.20250745
中国实际光伏部署区域未来发电潜力的气候风险评估
Climate-Risk Assessment for Future Power-Generation Potential of China's Deployed Solar Photovoltaic Systems
摘要
Abstract
Amidst the global transition toward renewable energy,China has emerged as the world leader in solar photovoltaic(PV)capacity and generation.However,the climatic risks and operational stability of this extensively deployed PV infrastructure under future climate change remain insufficiently assessed.Previous studies have primarily focused on the theoretical PV power-generation potential(PsolarPV)across terrestrial areas,overlooking the specific climatic risks of existing operational PV facilities.This study addresses this critical gap through a comprehensive,multi-dimensional risk assessment for China's deployed PV systems.We developed a high-resolution hourly PsolarPV model driven by a multi-model ensemble from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections(NEX-GDDP-CMIP6)under three greenhouse gas(GHG)emission scenarios from 2015 to 2060.Focusing on China's existing deployed PV infrastructure and seven representative regions,we quantified future changes in annual PsolarPV and their driving factors,the frequency of extreme PV power events(energy"surplus"and energy"deficit"days),and intra-annual variability(short-term fluctuations and seasonal variations).Our results reveal that future trends in PsolarPV across China's PV deployments are shaped by the opposing effects of increasing solar radiation(positive effect)and rising surface temperatures(negative effect).Under the low-emission scenario(SSP1-2.6),enhanced solar radiation dominates,leading to a nationwide increase in annual PsolarPV of 3.4％±0.4％(multi-model mean±standard error).In contrast,under the high-emission scenario(SSP5-8.5),thermal-induced efficiency losses offset these gains,resulting in a slight increase of 0.6％±0.4％in PsolarPV and a rise in the frequency of poor-power days by 0.1 d per decade.Moreover,climate-induced impacts exhibited pronounced spatial heterogeneity.With increasing GHG emissions,deployed PV systems in northwestern,northern,and eastern China are projected to be the most climate-sensitive,experiencing greater changes in power-generation potential and more frequent extreme power-generation events.Northwest China,where PV deployments are concentrated,is projected to experience a decline of-0.5％±0.2％in PsolarPV and an increase of 1.0 d per decade in extreme poor-power days under the high-emission scenario.Conversely,the deployed PV systems in South and Southwest China exhibited stronger climate resilience.Furthermore,higher GHG-emission scenarios are expected to intensify seasonal and short-term PsolarPV fluctuations,especially in northern regions(e.g.,Northeast,North,and Northwest China),posing greater challenges to grid stability and power dispatch management.In conclusion,this study provides the first location-specific,forward-looking climate risk assessment of China's existing PV infrastructure.These findings highlight that stringent GHG mitigation is critical for safeguarding solar energy assets and ensuring the long-term sustainability of PV power generation.They also emphasize the need for spatially differentiated climate adaptation strategies,including optimizing future deployment in climate-resilient regions,strengthening grid capacity with advanced energy storage,and enacting policies that enhance the climate resilience of China's solar power system.关键词
太阳能光伏系统/发电潜力/气候变化/气候风险/温室气体排放情景/中国Key words
Solar photovoltaics/power-generation potential/climate change/climate risk/greenhouse gas emission scenarios/China分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
张德帅,欧阳卓林,李雁君,杜建会,张海成..中国实际光伏部署区域未来发电潜力的气候风险评估[J].热带地理,2026,46(5):796-808,13.基金项目
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(42301020) （42301020）
广东省基础与应用基础研究基金项目(2024A1515010929) （2024A1515010929）
