热带气象学报2026，Vol.42Issue(2)：213-220,8.DOI:10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2026.018
基于温跃层温度异常对登陆华东及华南地区热带气旋频数的预测研究
Predicting the Frequency of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in East and South China Using Thermocline Temperature Anomalies
摘要
Abstract
Landfalling Tropical Cyclones(TCs)cause huge economic losses in China's coastal areas.Predicting the frequency of TC landfall in advance is of great significance for disaster prevention and mitigation.In this study,four ocean reanalysis datasets from 1993 to 2019 were utilized to investigate the correlations between the thermocline temperature anomalies at different longitudes across different months and the frequency of TCs making landfall in South and East China.The results reveal significant correlations at specific longitudes,with temperature anomalies leading the frequency of landfalling TCs by several months or even longer.This predictive capability is attributed to the eastward transport of upper-ocean heat content along the equatorial Pacific thermocline.In addition,the meridional shift of the western Pacific subtropical high ridge is closely related not only with the frequency of landfalling TCs in East China but also with the thermocline temperature anomalies at varying longitudes.关键词
热带气旋登陆频数/温跃层温度异常/海洋热能传输/长期预报Key words
tropical cyclone landfall frequency/thermocline temperature anomaly/ocean heat transport/long-range forecast分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
郑嵘,苏千叶,梁志婷,刘春雷,吴胜安,曹宁,金梁,鲍瑞娟,廖晓晴,陈海亮,杨可..基于温跃层温度异常对登陆华东及华南地区热带气旋频数的预测研究[J].热带气象学报,2026,42(2):213-220,8.基金项目
海南省南海气象防灾减灾重点实验室开放基金(SCSF202405) （SCSF202405）
中国国家自然科学基金(42075036、42275017、72293604、42130605) （42075036、42275017、72293604、42130605）
广东海洋大学研究生教育创新项目(202532)共同资助 （202532）
