人口与经济2026，Vol.47Issue(3)：42-55,14.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4149.2026.00.028
新型城镇化对农业转移人口生育潜力的释放效应
The Release Effect of New-type Urbanization on the Fertility Potential of Migrant Workers:A Perspective Based on Changes in Fertility Costs
摘要
Abstract
Addressing the challenges of low fertility rates through new-type urbanization constitutes a critical pathway for achieving high-quality population development.Influenced by traditional fertility norms,the migrant workers exhibit relatively high fertility intentions and fertility potential.However,under the conventional urbanization model,institutional restrictions such as the Hukou hinder their equal access to basic urban public services,leading to high fertility costs and uncertainty,which directly suppresses their reproductive potential.People-centered new-type urbanization is a vital strategy to reduce the fertility costs for the migrant workers,thereby fostering fertility-friendly cities and improving the fertility support policy system.Utilizing data from the China Migrants Dynamic Survey(2012-2018)and employing a staggered difference-in-differences method,this study treats the comprehensive new-type urbanization pilot programs,rolled out in three phases since 2015,as a quasi-natural experiment to examine their impact on the fertility behaviors of the migrant workers and the underlying mechanisms.The findings reveal that the new-type urbanization pilots significantly unlock the fertility potential of migrant workers.Mechanism analysis indicates that these pilots primarily lower fertility costs by enhancing the accessibility of public services,increasing household income,and improving the employment environment,consequently unleashing their reproductive potential.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the pilots are more effective in unleashing the fertility potential among migrant workers with higher education levels,larger family sizes,and greater living pressure.Therefore,in advancing the new-type urbanization process,it is essential to integrate fertility support into the institutional design of urbanization,focusing on removing fertility constraints and reducing costs.Such institutional innovations can release the endogenous impetus for high-quality population development,ultimately achieving a profound mutual reinforcement and synergistic promotion between population development strategy and urbanization transformation.关键词
新型城镇化/公共服务可及性/农业转移人口/生育行为/生育成本Key words
new-type urbanization/accessibility of public services/migrant workers/fertility behavior/fertility costs分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
郑旭刚,张抗私,热娜·艾尔肯..新型城镇化对农业转移人口生育潜力的释放效应[J].人口与经济,2026,47(3):42-55,14.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重点项目"青年就业新动向、新问题及其政策机制研究"(24AJY021). （24AJY021）
