生态科学2026，Vol.45Issue(2)：12-23,12.DOI:10.14108/j.cnki.1008-8873.2026.02.002
基于Budyko理论框架的流域特征参数模型及径流量模拟
Modeling surface runoff and climate-driven mechanisms in the Pearl River Basin based on Budyko theory and multiple linear models
摘要
Abstract
Runoff is a central component of the hydrological cycle,and understanding its driving mechanisms is essential for effective water resources management in basins.Based on the Budyko theoretical framework and taking the Pearl River Basin as the research object,meteorological factors such as precipitation(Pre),temperature(T),wind speed(u),and vapor pressure deficit(VPD),as well as land surface elements like the normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI)and surface soil moisture(SM)were selected to systematically analyze the contribution of different meteorological factors and underlying surface factors to watershed runoff changes,using the multiple linear stepwise regression method.At the same time,an empirical relationship for the basin characteristic parameter m in the Fu's model was constructed,and an empirical runoff model suitable for this region was established.The runoff of the Pearl River basin was simulated and its accuracy was verified.The results show that climate is the most important contributing factor to runoff,and vegetation index(NDVI)and saturated vapor pressure difference(VPD)are the key factors affecting evapotranspiration,which have a significant impact on runoff changes in the Pearl River basin.The overall simulation effect of the established runoff empirical model is good,with a determination coefficient R2 of generally 0.4 or higher,and the simulated runoff values at some stations are close to the measured values.However,during drought years and years with extreme precipitation,there is a significant deviation between simulated runoff values and measured values.The research results reveal the influence mechanism of different factors on runoff change,highlight the dominant role of vegetation index(NDVI)and saturated vapor pressure difference(VPD)in regulating runoff,and provide theoretical support for the optimal management of water resources in the Pearl River Basin.关键词
径流/珠江流域/Budyko理论/经验模型/气候驱动机制Key words
runoff/the Pearl River Basin/Budyko theory/empirical model/climate driving mechanism分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
潘怡萱,王芳怡,陈修治..基于Budyko理论框架的流域特征参数模型及径流量模拟[J].生态科学,2026,45(2):12-23,12.基金项目
广东省科技计划项目(2024B1212070012) （2024B1212070012）
国家重点研发计划-南岭山地生态系统恢复与生态安全保障技术(2024YFF1306600) （2024YFF1306600）
