中国生态农业学报（中英文）2026，Vol.34Issue(5)：1023-1035,13.DOI:10.12357/cjea.20250392
农业新质生产力对农业碳排放强度的影响及作用机制
Impact and mechanism of agricultural new quality productive forces on agricultural carbon emission intensity
摘要
Abstract
As the core driver for optimizing agricultural production systems,agricultural new quality productive forces transform traditional farming practices through technological innovation and model upgrades,thereby playing a key role in advancing the green and low-carbon development of agriculture.Using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces(autonomous regions,municipalities,excluding Hong Kong,Macao,Taiwan and Xizang)from 2013 to 2022,this study employed a two-way fixed effects model to investigate the direct impact of agricultural new quality productive forces on agricultural carbon emission intensity.It further utilized mediating and quadratic term models to analyze the indirect effects and underlying mechanisms.The study found that agricultural new quality productive forces substantially reduced agricultural carbon emission intensity.A heterogeneity analysis showed that this carbon emission reduction effect was more pronounced in non-major grain-producing areas and regions with high agricultural technology investment.Furthermore,mechanism tests indicated two key findings:agricultural land productivity was an important mediating pathway through which agricultural new quality productive forces reduced carbon emissions,and a U-shaped non-linear relationship existed between these forces and agricultural carbon emissions.Specifically,when the index for agricultural new quality productive forces exceeded 0.58,carbon emission intensity may rebound.These conclusions provide important insights for optimizing the development strategies of agricultural new-quality productive forces and for formulating targeted,differentiated carbon emission reduction policies,thereby contributing to sustainable societal development.关键词
农业新质生产力/农业碳排放强度/非线性关系/土地生产率/农业绿色发展Key words
agricultural new quality productive forces/agricultural carbon emission intensity/nonlinear relationship/land productivity/green agricultural development分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
郑兰钦,陈怡珑,连海峰,王武成,陈楗鑫..农业新质生产力对农业碳排放强度的影响及作用机制[J].中国生态农业学报（中英文）,2026,34(5):1023-1035,13.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42202333)和福建省自然科学基金项目(2022J01152)资助 This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42202333)and the Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province(2022J01152). （42202333）
