天津师范大学学报（自然科学版）2026，Vol.46Issue(1)：53-60,8.DOI:10.19638/j.issn1671-1114.20260108
松花江流域生态脆弱性评价及预测
Evaluation and prediction of ecological vulnerability in the Songhua River Basin
摘要
Abstract
To cope with regional ecological degradation and promote harmonious human-environment relations,the Songhua River Basin was taken as the research object.11 indicator factors were selected to construct an ecological vulnerability evalu-ation index system based on the sensitivity-resilience-pressure(SRP)model.The spatial autocorrelation method and Geode-tector were used to analyze the spatial correlation and driving factors of ecological vulnerability in the Songhua River Basin,and the CA-Markov model was used to predict ecological vulnerability conditions for 2025.The results showed that:① From 2005 to 2020,ecological vulnerability in the Songhua River Basin exhibited a spatial distribution pattern of higher vulnera-bility in peripheral areas and lower vulnerability in the central areas,with a decrease in the areas classified as slightly vul-nerable areas,mildly vulnerable areas,and moderately vulnerabl areas,and an increase in the areas classified as extremely vulnerable areas.②Ecological vulnerability in the Songhua River Basin exhibited a positive spatial correlation,with high-high clusters predominantly concentrated in the northern,western,and southeastern regions,while low-low clusters were primarily distributed in the central basin from 2005 to 2015,and in the northeastern region in 2020.③ The annual precipita-tion,slope gradient,population density,and settlement disturbance were the primary factors influencing ecological vulner-ability in the Songhua River Basin.④ The prediction results indicated that compared to 2020,the areas classified as severely vulnerable areas and extremely vulnerable areas in the studied region will increase in 2025,while the areas classi-fied as minimally vulnerable areas and slightly vulnerable areas will decrease.关键词
松花江流域/生态脆弱性指数/敏感性-恢复力-压力值(SRP)模型/CA-Markov模型Key words
Songhua River Basin/ecological vulnerability index/sensitivity-resilience-pressure(SRP)model/CA-Markovmodel分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
祝悦,刘家福,张柏豪,文思懿..松花江流域生态脆弱性评价及预测[J].天津师范大学学报（自然科学版）,2026,46(1):53-60,8.基金项目
吉林省科技发展计划资助项目(YDZJ202501ZYTS492). （YDZJ202501ZYTS492）
