心脑血管病防治2026，Vol.26Issue(4)：8-12,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1009-816x.2026.04.002
基于DynNom动态评分构建脑梗死后并发血管性痴呆的风险预测模型
Construction of a model for predicting the risk of vascular dementia after cerebral infarction based on the DynNom dynamic score
摘要
Abstract
Objective To construct a risk prediction model for vascular dementia(VD)after cerebral infarction based on DynNom dynamic scoring.Methods A total of 206 patients with cerebral infarction admitted to Jianyang People's Hospital from January 2021 to September 2023 were selected as the study subjects.Based on the occurrence of VD,the patients were divided into a VD group(74 cases)and a non-VD group(132 cases).General data were compared between the two groups.Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to identify risk factors for VD after cerebral infarction,and a DynNom dynamic scoring model was established and validated.Results Significant differences were observed between the two groups in terms of years of education,diabetes,hypertension,National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale(NIHSS)score,and Glasgow Coma Scale(GCS)score(t/χ2=3.533,16.240,15.698,4.255,6.569,respectively;P<0.05).Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that fewer years of education,diabetes,hypertension,high NIHSS score,and low GCS score were risk factors for VD after cerebral infarction(P<0.05).Validation of the DynNom dynamic scoring model indicated that the calibration curve closely approximated the ideal curve,with an average absolute error value of 0.020.The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test showed no statistically significant difference between the predicted and observed values(χ2=13.488,P>0.05).The area under the ROC curve(AUC)was 0.876(95%CI=0.826～0.926).Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the model had a net benefit>0 across a prediction range of 0%～100%.Conclusion Risk factors for concurrent VD after cerebral infarction include fewer years of education,diabetes,hypertension,higher NIHSS scores,and lower GCS scores.The DynNom dynamic scoring model constructed based on these factors has good predictive value for the risk of VD after cerebral infarction.关键词
脑梗死/血管性痴呆/DynNom动态评分模型Key words
Cerebral infarction/Vascular dementia/DynNom dynamic scoring model引用本文复制引用
龚柳盛,付钟,傅慧,宋正希..基于DynNom动态评分构建脑梗死后并发血管性痴呆的风险预测模型[J].心脑血管病防治,2026,26(4):8-12,5.基金项目
成都市医学科研课题(2022261) （2022261）
