中国地质2026，Vol.53Issue(2)：491-506,16.DOI:10.12029/gc20250323001
能源转型驱动下的全球铜资源产业链结构演变与发展方向
Global copper resource industry chain structure evolution and development direction driven by energy transition
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]Amidst the ongoing global energy transition,the strategic importance of copper resources within both the new energy sector and broader manufacturing value chains has become increasingly pronounced.This paper undertakes a systematic analysis of the structural characteristics and evolutionary trajectory of the global copper resource industry chain.Our primary objective is to deepen the understanding of this critical supply chain and to foster the high-quality development of the copper industry worldwide.[Methods]This study adopts a comprehensive industry chain perspective,meticulously tracking significant developments within the global copper resource supply chain.We critically review key elements,including copper resource distribution,reserve fluctuations,production volumes,consumption patterns,and international trade dynamics.Furthermore,the research systematically analyzes the developmental trends across the upstream,midstream,and downstream segments of the industry chain,culminating in a forward-looking assessment of global copper industry chain trends.[Results]Findings indicate that global copper resources are characterized by an imbalanced supply distribution,a pervasive decline in ore grades,and considerable volatility in exploration investment.Smelting capacity is predominantly concentrated in Asia and continues to expand,with technological advancements increasingly oriented towards environmentally sustainable processes and intelligent automation systems.While the recycled copper industry is experiencing rapid growth,it faces significant challenges,particularly related to unstable raw material supply chains.Concurrently,burgeoning sectors such as new energy vehicles are driving sustained demand growth.The London Metal Exchange(LME)maintains a dominant position in global copper pricing mechanisms,although the Shanghai Futures Exchange(SHFE)is progressively augmenting its influence.[Conclusions]This paper posits that the global copper industry chain operates in a state of"fragile equilibrium."The distribution of profits along the copper industry chain typically demonstrates a characteristic pattern of"high at both ends,low in the middle."Specifically,the recycled copper industry manifests the distinctive"three highs and one low"feature(referring to high consumption,high pollution,high energy consumption,and low efficiency).While China's copper industry chain possesses significant global competitive advantages,the domestic chain itself reveals a"strong middle,weak ends"structural characteristic.A notable mismatch between global pricing influence and production capacity for copper products also exists.关键词
铜资源/产业链/"双碳"目标/全球贸易/再生铜/矿产勘查工程Key words
copper resources/industry chain/"Dual Carbon"goals/global trade/recycled copper/mineral exploration engineering分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
朱清,汤夏荪,雷涯邻,赛盛勋,黄胜忠,王延俊,顾本杰..能源转型驱动下的全球铜资源产业链结构演变与发展方向[J].中国地质,2026,53(2):491-506,16.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重大项目(24VHQ005)、自然资源科技战略项目(2023-ZL-41)、上海自然资源研究中心开放课题(2025(Z)-K05A)联合资助. Supported by the major project of the National Social Science Fund(No.24VHQ005),Science and Technology Strategy Project of Natural Resources(No.2023-ZL-41),Open Research Project of Shanghai Natural Resources Research Center(No.2025(Z)-K05A). （24VHQ005）
